"Heads In!" State of Origin: Game One
Unpacking the scrum each week in the NRL
The NRL season is done and dusted, but there’s still plenty of footy to be played with the 2020 State of Origin series taking on a stand-alone three week format this year. After Jason has carried RLW (and me) through a gruelling debut season in 2020 I thought it was time I pulled my weight, so here we are…
Whether you’re searching for an edge in the workplace tipping comp, or just desperate to talk some footy, you’ve found the place. Join me as we unpack the scrum that is the NRL in Origin week.
Centre-Field Scrum
What’s centre-frame in the Rugby League lens this week?
Keary & Cleary
It’s the halves pairing NSW fans have been calling for since the latter arrived on the representative scene in 2018, and the pair finally get their chance this Wednesday night to lead a new look Blues squad into the future.
The quality and consistency that Luke Keary and Nathan Cleary have played with over extended periods of time ultimately demanded representative selection. While Cody Walker or even Jarome Luai might have been in better form to finish the competition, Keary and Cleary have been stand outs in their positions for the best part of two years now, and rightfully get the opportunity to combine at Origin level.
More important for the Blues, however, will be the way Keary and Cleary combine not with each other, but with their teammates across the park. Most of us expect Cleary to direct traffic up the field while Keary lurks down NSW’s left edge with his entourage of Roosters’ teammates in tow. While the pair will no doubt link up across the 80-minutes, we’ll be watching for how Keary and Cleary can bring each other into the game, and in ways that complement their strengths.
We’ve seen the word ‘tempo’ thrown around a fair bit this year, beginning with this piece by Jason back in August when Cleary’s crabbing runs across field continued to embarrass opposition defensive systems:
The change of pace - or tempo - Cleary applies as he slows and straightens at a defender before quickly skipping to the outside is as subtle as it is difficult to execute, and Cleary nailed it more than a few times in the regular season. With the likes of Tyson Frizell or Cameron Murray running genuine decoy lines around him, this play might be something Cleary looks to more often on Wednesday night.
Cleary is also likely to link up with big man Junior Paulo as NSW work upfield and in attacking sets, and this combination is one we will be looking closely at throughout the series.
Paulo’s ability to draw defenders with his strong carries before releasing a deft pass to a supporting teammate is sure to be a feature of NSW’s attack, considering the elite support play of James Tedesco and Clint Gutherson, just to name a few. It’s not hard to picture Paulo hitting-and-spinning in the line before offloading to his half- or full-back like this on Wednesday night:
Just like with Cleary’s crabbing cross-field runs, this technique from Paulo is designed to do one thing: find the cracks in opposition defensive lines. Whether or not the Blues score directly off a play like the one above, Keary is sure to be ready to strike if Cleary and his forwards can find those cracks and earn a quick play the ball.
We all watched in wonder this year as Walker and Luai tore up opposition short sides’ in the regular season, but Keary has been the master of blind side raids for a number of years now and gets a chance to remind us all of that on Wednesday night. This solo effort back in Round 18 was special:
Keary has excellent game awareness and reads numbers better than most halves in the competition, and he will have QLD on red-alert down that short side. With an inexperienced and frankly outclassed centre-wing pairing of Brenko Lee and Xavier Coates lining up against the likes of Keary, Tedesco, Jack Wighton and Daniel Tupou, expect NSW to venture heavily down that edge throughout the series.
Cleary is an expert at directing traffic through the middle of the field and getting his forwards into key areas across the field. When he does, Keary and the Blues’ left edge should be all the more dangerous running their short side raids at the right time, and from the right places on the pitch.
Right Scrum-Line
Who is feeling the pressure this week?
Pack’s Against the Wall
Undermanned. Understrength. Underdogs.
Did a Queenslander write the script to this year’s Origin series?
Their backs are against the wall with some big names missing and some even bigger surprise inclusions to Wayne Bennett’s QLD Squad, but Queenslanders will tell you they wouldn’t have it any other way as the Maroons adopt a siege mentality heading into the three week Origin series.
While they may be somewhat outshone by their more established NSW counterparts, the forward pack Bennett has assembled still boasts some elite names - none more so than Josh Papalii, who enters the series as arguably the game’s best front-rower.
Papalii is a genuine game breaker. We lost count of how many times the Raiders looked to him in the big moments this year to produce something special, and more often than not he did. This effort against the Roosters in the finals series says it all - the big fella either can’t or won’t be stopped this close to the line:
Melbourne Storm pair Felise Kaufusi and Christian Welch bring a tireless work rate and competitive professionalism to their work - you know what you’re going to get from both these men. Welch, in particular, has been impressive in 2020 - his 124 average running metres are career high and like Papalii he is capable of playing big minutes through the middle, while his lean, mobile body shape brings a point of difference to QLD’s pack.
And then there’s Tino Fa'asuamaleaui.
We’d be talking about Big Tino as next year’s Buy of the Season already, had his signing with the Titans not been overshadowed by David Fifita’s historic contract with the Gold Coast based club. Fa’asuamaleaui was an absolute wrecking ball when used on an edge or through the middle for the Storm this season, and his selection in the starting side is a huge vote of confidence from coach Bennett in what will be his Origin debut.
Some of his best work this season has been in around the ruck running off Cameron Smith, and while he won’t have the GOAT feeding him pill on Wednesday night, how the Maroons use him in yardage sets and close to the line will be something to watch out for throughout the series.
Jai Arrow, Lindsay Collins and Jaydn Su’a round out a dynamic, powerful forward rotation that is well equipped to maintain the rage when QLD’s starting props come for a rest, but the big talking point is the inclusion of Coen Hess - in the starting side no less.
Enough has been said of Hess’ form over the past season or two - even Cowboys’ fans will admit he’s been poor. Which is why it surprised many to see his name in Bennett’s top 13 for Game One. While I’m still very much on the fence with this one, a quick scroll through YouTube did remind me of the damage Hess can do:
There was a time not so long ago when you couldn’t give Hess the ball 10 metres out from the try line without him crashing over to score, leaving a tangled mass of would-be tacklers in his wake. He has struggled to produce this kind of form over the past two seasons but if anyone can get the best out of Hess on the big stage, it’s Bennett.
The pressure is well and truly on QLD’s rag-tag band of forwards to stand and deliver against the more fancied NSW pack, but something tells me that’s just how they like it.
Left Scrum-Line
My left-field thought(s) on the NRL this week
NSW: The forward rotation
All the commentary around Brad Fitler’s Game One Origin squad is the inclusion of just one genuine prop forward on the interchange - Payne Haas. Alongside him is Cody Walker (utility), Cameron Murray (lock/edge) and Angus Crichton (edge), although Crichton has spent time in the middle for the Roosters this season.
It seems an odd move at first, but also one that gives us some insight into how the Blues might look to play on Wednesday night. With the six-again rule likely to speed up an already lightening-fast Origin pace, the agility and mobility of NSW’s forward rotation may prove to be an advantage through the middle of the field.
Jake Trbojevic is named to start at lock but has also been used in the front-row in past series, and alongside Haas forms an extremely mobile prop-forward rotation with Daniel Saifiti and Junior Paulo. This will allow Murray to spend extended minutes on the field in his preferred lock position, where his ball playing and footwork around the ruck shapes as a key weapon for the Blues, and for hooker Damien Cook.
Almost every highlight moment Cook produced this season came off the back of a quick play-the-ball from Murray. And when it wasn’t Murray playing the ball, the energetic lock was pushing up in support to finish off the play:
We’ve already touched on the club combinations of Keary-Cordner-Tedesco-Tupou down NSW’s left edge, but the one-two punch of Rabbitohs’ teammates Cook and Murray is sure to be a weapon the Blues look to use through the middle of the field, particularly if ruck speeds increase as expected.
QLD: AJ Brimson
Queensland may be missing their poster-boy fullback Kalyn Ponga, but there’s a new kid on the block and he has a chance to cement his place in this Maroons squad for the best part of the next decade.
While he might be hard-pressed holding onto the #1 jersey full-time, AJ Brimson’s versatility and ability make him the ultimate bench utility in Origin football, where he can potentially cover lock, hooker, halves and all backline positions.
Regular readers of RLW will know I’ve developed a soft spot for Brimson this season following his superb second half of the year for the Gold Coast Titans. Although statistics are far from everything in rugby league, Brimson’s numbers from the 2020 season are frankly absurd:
But sometimes, a players’ influence on a team is too difficult to quantify with numbers and can be simply put down to this: they make their teammates better players. Brimson fits this description too. His return to the Titans’ side coincided not only with a six-game winning streak but more importantly with the improved form of Ash Taylor and Jamal Fogarty in the halves.
With elite playmakers Daly Cherry-Evans and Cameron Munster feeding him the ball on Wednesday night, we’re expecting Brimson to have an even greater influence on the game’s result. We’ve seen Cherry-Evans and Tom Trjobjevic link up at Manly with some little trick plays around the ruck, and it won’t surprise to see Brimson fill a similar role on Wednesday night - something like this maybe:
Tips
Jason: I’m a passionate Wayne Bennett disciple. That leaves me a little bit more confident in Queensland than most. By no means do I expect them to win, but I can see them keeping it close. They’re at least strong enough in the middle of the field to make things difficult for New South Wales. I’ll trust Wayne to get as much out of this questionable Queensland squad as possible. NSW by 6.
Oscar: It’s not as simple as who has the best team on paper when NSW and QLD meet in the Origin arena. It’s different from regular season games, even finals series. The Wayne Bennett influence cannot be understated, and he will surely have reminded this embattled rookie squad of the heroics of Queensland’s unlikely 1995 series win. That said, I can’t see anything other than a Game One victory for the Blues this Wednesday night. The forward packs are evenly enough matched, but NSW’s strike on the edges should have too many points in them for QLD in this one. Blues by 14.
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