NRL Finals: Eels v Rabbitohs Preview

Parramatta host South Sydney in a clash that will determine who plays Penrith in the Preliminary Final next week.

We’re diving into both games this weekend. We will take a look at how it all played out the last time these two met, what each side needs to do to win, and wrap it up with our tips.

---

2020 Head-to-head Recap

Round 16: Rabbitohs 32 def. Eels 0

It was as one-sided as they come last time these two sides met over a month ago. 

A South Sydney 38-0 shutout of Parramatta back in Round 16 doesn’t give us too much to review for the blue-and-golds, but it was a glimpse of what was to come for the Rabbitohs and their red hot attacking form over the last six weeks.

You could hear the collective sighs of the Redfern faithful when Latrell Mitchell injured his hamstring midway through that Round 16 clash, but rookie Corey Allan has since proved that surprises aren’t always a bad thing with his slick hands and timing on the end of Souths’ backline shifts bearing fruit in that game, and every game since:

This kind of catch-and-release pass is what had us waxing lyrical about Mitchell only a week earlier, while Allan also showed great vision and skill to sum up the situation and find Campbell Graham on the other flank with a long ball shortly after:

Allan’s transition into the full-time fullback role has been made all the more easy thanks to the scintillating form of halves Adam Reynolds and Cody Walker, who have combined beautifully in recent weeks. Reynolds is digging into the line and squaring up defenders like the best of them, while Walker’s influence with the ball in hand makes him arguably the form five-eighth in the NRL right now.

This one was an absolute beauty, and we’ve seen the duo link up more than a few times since:

Parramatta’s attack - as the scoreline suggests - was awful on the night, and has only improved marginally since. It would be foolish to expect a similar result this weekend, but with Maika Sivo and Blake Ferguson both potentially missing from the line up this time around, the Eels will be hoping the version of themselves that showed up in the first half of the season suits up on Saturday night. 

Deciding Factors for Saturday

Eels - Getting it right defensively

The scoreboard after 25 minutes flattered the Parramatta defence last week.

Melbourne carved up the Parramatta right side and should have scored two or three tries before eventually crossing the line in the 29th minute. Justin Olam is a concrete block and commanded plenty of attention as a lead runner. Meanwhile, the ball-playing of Kenny Bromwich and speed of Ryan Papenhuyzen put Josh Addo-Carr on the outside of Blake Ferguson all too regularly.

A repeat on Saturday and Parramatta won’t play with the encouraging 12-0 lead they did in Week 1.

Waqa Blake turned in on Olam before the pass was even thrown for Bromwich to send Addo-Carr streaking down the left wing early on. The Storm should have scored their first here:

Six minutes later, Blake hung off the lead runner this time but didn’t close out on the Papenhuyzen out the back. Mitchell Moses forced that indecision by committing to Cameron Munster despite Ryan Matterson being in a position to slide over as cover on the inside. With Blake flat-footed and slow to react, Papenhuyzen got on the outside and the Storm blew another one:

A long Cameron Smith pass out of dummy half exposed Parramatta’s numbers disadvantage on this one. Again, Melbourne left points out there by failing to make the most of yet another line break:

Melbourne eventually started to turn the chances they created down the left edge into points as Munster caught Moses out in the line. Bromwich and the left edge linked up to put the Storm in front:

It’s not all doom and gloom for the Eels. The nerve center of the defence is one of the strongest in the competition and is the reason for their third-ranked 15.4 points conceded per game. No team has conceded fewer tries through the middle of the field this season than Parramatta’s ten. That bodes well against a Souths outfit that has experienced plenty of success around the posts in recent weeks.

However, the South Sydney left edge is the strongest in the competition. They’ve only made it more dangerous with Cody Walker routinely popping up to score or create on the right side since Round 16.

Blake has struggled defensively all season. Although, the recent focus on him is somewhat overblown considering Blake Ferguson has 18 try causes outside him (7th-most in the NRL). But make no mistake, Blake will be the name circled on the whiteboard at Rabbitohs training this week.

Bailey Sironen can play a similar role to what Bromwich did on Saturday. Walker and Alan will create all sorts of indecision given the dazzling form of the former and the improving catch-and-pass of the latter. Both of which will play to a centre-wing pairing that knows how to find the line.

Parramatta found a few points last week. While it’s not what it was earlier in the year, their attack can fire from anywhere on the field and force the opposition to chase. But as we saw against the Storm, the impressive tries matter little when so many are coming through the other way.

Defence wins premierships, but first of all for the Eels, defence needs to win them this Week 2 matchup against an on-fire Rabbitohs.

Rabbitohs - Unleashing Cook

I’ve lost count of how many times we’ve heard people call for Damien Cook to run the ball more this season. 

The rule changes introduced during the COVID break sent our beloved rugby league fan base into a chaotic frenzy at the thought of Cook carving up opposition defences around the ruck, and their bloodlust is yet to be sated - or rather it was, until the speedy hooker’s electric performance against the Knights last weekend. 

‘Cookie’ finished that game with a try, two try assists, seven tackle busts and 175 running metres as he carved up a fatigued Newcastle middle third in the second half, thanks in no small part to the form of South Sydney’s unheralded forward pack. 

The last time they won a premiership, South Sydney’s left edge reaped the rewards of a dominant power game through the middle. Some of the Rabbitohs’ tries against the Knights last weekend had shades of that victorious ’14 season, thanks to the work of Cameron Murray, Tevita Tatola and Tom Burgess in the middle of the field.

A bit of late footwork here allows Murray to poke his head through the line and earn a quick play the ball, and Burgess backs it up with a bustling charge near the left post:

Importantly, Burgess forces back rower Herman Ese’ese to make the tackle, which strips the Knights’ right edge for numbers. It’s now only second tackle, yet Cook immediately looks to the short side and the Knights are too slow to react as Walker and Allan find Alex Johnston in the corner:

With Souths threatening like this on the edges, Newcastle began committing fewer defenders to the middle and around the ruck, and Cook and his forwards made them pay. Tatola’s first try was a great individual effort combined with a woeful defensive attempt from the Knights, but his second was a well-constructed piece of play from Souths’ middles.

It begins with Burgess taking another carry towards that left post, and you can see Mitchell Pearce and Kalyn Ponga both gesture to commit defenders to their short side, where Johnston got them earlier. Unfortunately, that left just two Knights under the posts to stop a charging Tatola - good luck:

Special mention must also go to the Rabbitohs bench, and in particular Keaon Koloamatangi, for maintaining Souths Sydney’s go-forward through the middle third while giving their starters a rest. Koloamatangi was the catalyst for Reynolds’ match-winning field goal against the Cowboys back in Round 14, and his strong carries and quick play-the-balls helped Souths to another scoring opportunity last weekend.

With the ball in two hands and Murray running a decoy line next to him, Koloamatangi gets himself one-on-one with Sione Mata'utia and wins the contact. Pushing through the tackle, he attracts two more Knights’ defenders before fighting to his feet and earning a quick play-the-ball for Cook to exploit:

The reverse angle shows Barnett retreating far too wide of the ruck, and by the time he turns into position Cook has him beat back on the inside before finding Murray in support:

With Latrell Mitchell on the sidelines, the Rabbitohs have adjusted their left-edge heavy offence to now threaten with more variety across the park. As Jason previews here, South Sydney have scored just 44% of their points down that left edge since Round 16 - down from 54% in the sixteen games prior. 

With Walker and Reynolds popping up together across the park, Cook and his forwards are being afforded a little more room through the middle third of the field. How they fare against the competitions’ best middle defence this weekend in Parramatta will go a long way to deciding the result. 

Tips

Jason: Injuries and poor form in the worst area of the field in this matchup make it difficult to get behind the Eels. There is always the possibility of a return to early-season form, but why this week? We’ve been waiting for months now. Souths, on the other hand, are on fire and peaking at the right time. They showed some resilience to bounce back from a slow start last week too. They should have too many points in them. Rabbitohs by 8.

Oscar: They say to tip with your head and not your heart, but I’m going to back my beloved Bunnies home in this one. Souths were 0-and-5 against top eight teams going into their Round 16 clash with Parramatta, and since then they are 4-and-0 with a combined score of 160-50. Parramatta showed signs of improvement last week but even their best doesn’t measure up against what South Sydney have produced in the last month or so. Rabbitohs by 14.

---

Subscribe to Rugby League Writers:

Socials

Rugby League Writers on Twitter, Facebook & Instagram

Jason Oliver on Twitter & Facebook

Oscar Pannifex on Twitter