NRL Finals: Panthers v Rabbitohs Preview

The Penrith Panthers take on a fired up South Sydney Rabbitohs outfit for a place in the Grand Final.

We’re diving into both games this weekend. We will take a look at how it all played out the last time these two met and what each side needs to do to win.

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2020 Head-to-head Recap

Round 7: Panthers 20 def. Rabbitohs 12

In what has been a coming-of-age season for Nathan Cleary in 2020, his Round 7 performance against South Sydney might be the pick of the bunch as he overcame a gruesome facial infection to lead the Panthers to a 20-12 victory. 

The Rabbitohs had an off night themselves - four errors and a sin-binning from fullback Latrell Mitchell about sums it up - but were down by just a converted try with 20 minutes to go despite their terrible ball control in attacking territory. 

But just when Souths fans started thinking about an unlikely comeback, Cleary stole the spotlight to dominate the final quarter of the match and closed it out for the Panthers. Touching the ball four or five times a set, Cleary directed his forwards around the park with safe, simple drop-offs or tips to his forwards:

Then, rather than going for the kill shot with a low percentage play, Cleary took the right option late in the set to earn repeat sets and continue piling on the pressure:

Cleary camped Penrith on Souths’ line for three consecutive sets until they cracked. James Roberts was sin-binned for taking out Stephen Crichton off the ball and Cleary slotted the penalty to put the Panthers out by eight. 

Now with some breathing room, Cleary got a little more expansive. Knowing Souths were short on their right edge with Roberts in the bin, he fired this bullet out to Crichton who sends Josh Mansour down the sideline:

Mitchell makes a good stop, but again the pressure takes its toll when he holds on too long and is sent to join Roberts on the sidelines. With the Rabbitohs now down to 11 men, it took Cleary just two tackles to find the space between some tired forwards and barge over for the match-winner:

A late consolation try from Alex Johnston evened the scoreboard a little, but it’s worth noting Cleary kicked just one from four conversion attempts on the night - perhaps an effect of the swelling on his face and a far cry from his 79% season average. 

Souths were within reach for most of the game while at the same time never looking all that likely. In their first attacking set of the match, Cameron Murray found the ball in his hands on the last and rushed an awkward kick. In Souths’ next two good ball sets, Mitchell and Braidon Burns dropped it on first and third tackle, respectively.

The Rabbitohs’ form with the ball in hand now is night and day compared with what they produced back then.  

~ Oscar

Deciding Factors for Saturday

Panthers - Attacking without Kikau

You don’t need to have seen them play much this year to know that the Panthers’ left edge is their greatest weapon. Not only do Penrith venture down that channel more often than any other team in the comp, but they also do it better than anyone else too. 

It can be put down to a few things; the work of Apisai Koroisau and his forwards to strip short sides of numbers and get opposition defences retreating, or the career form of Jarome Luai who is taking the right options more often than not.

But it is the two-pronged attack of Viliame Kikau and Stephen Crichton that has threatened the most this year, as opposition defences struggle to contain the dynamic duo down that left corridor. Credit must go to Luai for his ability to get the best out of the strike players around him, but it’s not hard to look good with Kikau running on your inside shoulder and Crichton threatening on the outside. 

Stand-in back rower Kurt Capewell is a more than handy replacement for the suspended Kikau this weekend, but he will not attract the same attention on Penrith’s left edge as the big Fijian normally does. As such, Penrith may look to adjust how they attack down that flank on Saturday night. 

When Kikau was out in Round 11, we saw Cleary and Luai combine a few times down that edge for good effect:

Isaah Yeo at second receiver and Tyrone May running a strong lead line is enough to draw in Jamal Fogarty, who could be excused for thinking Penrith were settling given its only first tackle. But Yeo did what he’s excelled at all year - digging into the line before looking out the back to Cleary who has popped up to create the numbers on the edge. 

Shortly after, it was Cleary distributing on the left-hand side of the field to another ball-playing big man - this time James Fisher-Harris:

Early in the tackle count again, May’s decoy line draws in Dale Copley and Fisher-Harris is good enough to not only see the space on the outside but get the ball there too. Luai chimes in again with another slick catch-and-pass and the Panthers are over for their second. 

When he wasn’t linking up with Luai down the left edge, Cleary was pulling the Titans apart on the other side of the field:

Cleary’s staggering run before dropping the ball off to Yeo gets all of Jai Arrow, Nathan Peats and Sam Stone involved, before Yeo pushes through the contact and wins a quick play-the-ball.

With Stone caught at marker and Arrow yet to get onside, Cleary immediately pushes over the advantage line, squaring up Ash Taylor to create the overlap down the short side before releasing to his outside men:

There is no arguing that Kikau’s absence on Saturday night is a huge loss for the Minor Premiers, given the success they’ve had down that edge in attack this season. Not to mention how effective Kikau has been as a bodyguard for Luai in defence, where his smaller frame is often a target close to the line. 

But this is an extremely well balanced Penrith outfit that has threats across the park. Cleary is the form playmaker in the competition while Dylan Edwards has proven to be the perfect foil for his creative halves playing behind a dominant forward pack.

And that’s not even mentioning the craft of Api Koroisau from dummy-half.

~ Oscar

Rabbitohs - Right Edge

*Update* Shit happens sometimes. Campbell Graham being ruled out 30 minutes after publishing everything below is one of those times…

Jed Cartwright has been named to replace Graham so I’ve done what anybody that spends too much time watching rugby league already would do, and watched more rugby league. Specifically, Cartwright’s limited minutes.

He has just 146 minutes to his name in 2020. If nothing else, this is an incredible show of faith in the young rookie. He’s typically a back rower and has spent the majority of his time on the edge. A lot of it on the left edge, too. But wherever Cartwright has spent time on the field, he’s been able to provide Souths with some strong carries:

Helping the Rabbitohs out of their own end is one of Graham’s best attributes and one Cartwright can be expected to fill relatively well.

Cartwright is quick, and while he won’t have quite the same attacking instincts as Graham, he has threatened the defensive line out wide:

While Cartwright has only spent 21 minutes in the right centre position, he’s well versed enough in the shapes South’s play with on the right side that he shouldn’t look too out of place. A tempoed Reynolds run while shaping to dump off to the back rower before hitting Corey Allan behind a lead-running centre is a popular play for the Rabbitohs down the right side. Cartwright has run it plenty as a back rower:

And timed the lead line further out perfectly fine here:

As far as Cartwright’s defence goes in the centres, he’s been so far untested. Wests managed one try down his side of the field when in the centres, but Gagai is to answer for that one. Cartwright is strong overall defensively. He looks a lot more confident than Graham and is unlikely to be caught rushing out too often on Saturday.

It’s not ideal to be forced into making a change, but we can be confident in Cartwright this week. Kikau’s absence will help reduce the number of decisions he needs to make at the very least.

The name and number are different, but much of what I covered before Graham was ruled out still applies to Cartwright and the Rabbitohs right edge:

The Panthers play with the best left-edge attack in the NRL. Their 50 tries is the most of any team on that side of the field, and it is the most prolific try-scoring edge in the competition. Now, as Oscar has already alluded to, things will be a lot different for Penrith without Kikau. While serviceable, Capewell doesn’t strike the sort of fear into a defensive line that Kikau does.

Campbell Graham, in particular, will be happy to have seen Kikau’s name missing from the team sheet.

The 21-year-old South Sydney centre is in excellent form with the ball. Serving an apprenticeship on the wing has allowed him to develop into a strong finisher at the line while his size and strength has proven valuable when South Sydney work out of their own end. He’s scored 13 tries in 2020 while his 138 running metres per game ranks 5th among all centres (min. 10 games).

But - you knew the but was coming and regular readers may even know what it is - Graham has had his struggles defensively. He isn’t a confident defender. That’s a difficult hurdle to overcome in a position that can often make or break an edge defence.

Graham spent a lot of time focused on Kikau in Round 7 with mixed results. He caught Kikau early with a good shot straight off the scrum before flying out on the wrong man and almost conceding a try in the space of two tackles:

Five minutes later, he again turned in on Kikau with Luai finding space in behind Graham for Crichton to score:

Jaxson Paulo’s performance last week had us talking here at RLW, but it also overshadowed a handful of less than convincing defensive efforts on the Rabbitohs right side.

The contact up high that shut down Kikau in the earlier example wasn’t there when Shaun Lane threw his offload leading to a George Jennings try. Graham falls off Lane far too easily here:

Graham is soon beaten again as the Eels complete an excellent scrum play. Gutherson sweeps around the back, and with Graham freezing on Takairangi, a gap opens up between the South Sydney centre and winger. Paulo stays wide but Graham can’t close up the space and falls off Gutherson on his way to the line:

Now, no Kikau makes Graham’s job easier. The Panthers are still likely to send a lot of ball to the left edge, though. Feeding Stephen Crichton and getting him one-on-one with Graham is still an action Penrith are likely to work towards.

We’ve seen Souths do it all in attack over the last three weeks. Their spine is pulling defences apart all the way up the field while the likes of Paulo, Graham, Dane Gagai and Alex Johnston are finishing the job out wide. Their once underrated forward pack is finally starting to be recognised as one of premiership quality too. But this is finals footy. While it may not look like it right now, defence will be the difference between now and the final whistle on October 25. It’s no coincidence that the top three defending teams in the NRL (Panthers, Storm, Raiders) are all still alive. The Rabbitohs at 6th aren’t too far down the list either.

Rather than matching Penrith point-for-point in a shootout, South Sydney need to limit the damage and take advantage of what is a depleted Penrith right edge by forcing them to score elsewhere.

~ Jason

Tips

Jason: As a big believer in Souths all season I’ve given myself a pat on the back for getting this far with them. It’s the end of the road for me now, though. Some recency bias had me tipping Souths following their win over Parramatta, but digging deeper into the matchup has turned me to Penrith. What South Sydney can do, Penrith can - and has for most of the season - do better. With a better middle, a halves pairing that can match Walker and Reynolds, and a week off to prepare, I have Penrith adding one more to the winning streak. Panthers by 7.

Oscar: I may be tipping with my heart more than my head, but this Souths outfit is full of confidence going into Saturday’s clash with Penrith. The head-to-head battle in the halves will go a long way to deciding this result, but Damien Cook’s influence through the middle might just tip the game in South Sydney’s favour. Souths by 6

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