NRL Finals: Panthers v Roosters Preview

The Panthers and Roosters kickoff the 2020 NRL Finals series with a ripper on Friday night.

Penrith Panthers v Sydney Roosters.

A 15-game winning streak v back-to-back premierships.

It’s one of the most highly anticipated 1st v 4th matchups in recent history.

We’re diving into all four games for the weekend. We will take a look at how it all played out the last time these two met, what each side needs to do to win, and wrap it up with our tips.

---

2020 Head-to-head Recap

Round 1: Panthers 20 def. Roosters 14

We have to go all the way back to Round 1 - before the COVID break and the rule changes were implemented - for a preview of what’s to come on Friday night as the Penrith Panthers and Sydney Roosters open the 2020 finals series. 

A number of injuries had caused a reshuffle in the backline for the Roosters, which no doubt had an impact as Sydney started strong but fell away in the second half. 

Brett Morris - playing in the unfamiliar centre position - was barrelled into touch twice in attacking shifts, while uncharacteristic handling errors from the likes of Victor Radley stalled any momentum. 

The defending premiers still looked likely right up until the siren sounded, and their final set summed up an off night for the Roosters. 

Beginning the set just off their own try line and with less than a minute remaining on the clock, Sydney worked upfield with two sweeping backline movements to get 60 meters upfield and into attacking territory.

But on the last tackle, Tedesco finds the ball in his hands and hurriedly sends up a Hail Mary midfield bomb, which Penrith secure to win the game. 

There were plenty of excuses for Trent Robinson in this one. 

A World Club Challenge only a week or so prior and a host of personnel changes led to too many unforced errors and a lack of cohesion and execution in the clutch moments. 

They’ve had 19 games since to get that right. 

For the Panthers, that Round 1 performance was - unbeknownst to us at the time - a crystal ball-like glimpse into the structures they would dominate with for the remainder of the 2020 season. 

We got our first taste of James Fisher-Harris ball playing through the middle third to create space for his halves or outside men:

It’s only fourth tackle here, and Fisher-Harris looks certain to hit Isaah Yeo short or take a carry himself, which draws in Kyle Flanagan. 

The moment Flanagan bites, Fisher-Harris throws out the back to Nathan Cleary, who digs into the line before offloading to Viliame Kikau short of the line - no one is stopping him there. 

Maybe we should’ve seen Yeo’s stellar year coming too, as he carved up the middle third with his footwork to finish that match with 170 run meters, one line break and seven tackle busts - not bad for his first hit out in the #13 jumper. 

The Panthers watertight defence conceded no line breaks and just two tries - both from kicks - in this one to keep their comeback hopes alive, and if anything their defence has only improved since that first hit out. 

Deciding Factors for Friday

Panthers - Scoring efficiency

The Panthers attack averages 26.9 points per game and is good for 2nd in the NRL behind the Roosters (27.6).

Nathan Cleary is arguably the best player in the competition right now and uses his 74.1 touches per game to play his teammates into try-scoring positions, send them over the line (15 try assists) or cross it himself (four tries). His partnership with Jarome Luai is lethal with the Samoan international playing out a career year through seven tries and 21 try assists in 20 games.

There is no doubt that Penrith is one of the best teams in the competition with the ball in hand. However, they have the ball in hand an awful lot at the moment. They lead the competition with 55% this season - 3% more than the next best (Eels). Those sort of numbers are unlikely to continue through the finals series which brings us to Penrith’s efficiency.

Through an NRL-high 1,904 running metres per game and 54 forced dropouts throughout the season, the Panthers have amassed an incredible 760 tackles inside the opposition 20-metre line this season. The Eels are again next best over 100 tackles behind (658).

The Panthers average 0.7 points per tackle inside the opposition 20-metre line this season - a touch below the NRL average of 0.72 points per tackle. The Roosters, meanwhile, leads the competition with 1.02 points per tackle inside the opposition 20.

Up against stronger opposition, the Panthers are unlikely to be presented with the number of opportunities they’ve been accustomed to at times this season. A lot more of the game will be played in the centre-third over the next month. The Panthers are coming into the finals hot, but if they’re to manufacture enough points against a Roosters defence conceding just 16.1 points per game (5th), they’ll need to be a little more efficient in good ball areas.

Lucky for them, they have the players to do it and can explore both sides of the field in search of a gap.

Kyle Flanagan will no doubt be a target early for Viliame Kikau just as Braydon Trindall was a few weeks ago.

With the defence trained on Kikau and later turning into help their half, Luai found the space out wide.

We all know what Cleary can do with the ball when he changes up his tempo on crabbing runs.

The key for the Panthers in this one is executing their plays across what we expect to be fewer opportunities inside the Roosters 20-metre line.

Roosters - Maintaining possession. 

We love our stats here at RLW just as much as the next footy nerd, but they don’t always paint the full picture. 

For example, it’s surprising to learn that the Sydney Roosters made the most errors in the competition in the 2018 and 2019 seasons - seasons when they were crowned back-to-back premiers. 

Common sense would suggest a team that makes more errors is not travelling so well, but the Roosters bucked this trend in the past two years by adopting an all-out offensive mentality - if you see a half a chance, take it. 

If you nail it; well then good, we’re on the scoreboard. 

If you don’t; no harm done, we’ll back ourselves to defend the mistake and then go again. 

It’s made for some incredibly exciting footy in recent seasons, but we’re expecting a slightly different approach from the Roosters on Friday night. 

The Penrith Panthers enter the 2020 finals series with the highest possession count (55%) and highest completion rate (82%) in the competition, while their 238 points conceded ranks them as the best defensive team in the NRL.

For the Roosters to bring their all-out offensive attitude from recent years to this Panthers outfit would be to gift them even more possession and opportunity with the ball in hand, in a season where they already dominate those areas. 

The Roosters completed at just 69% against the Panthers in Round 1 with a host of players missing, to come within just one converted try of the eventual Minor Premiers. 

With plenty of talk surrounding Penrith’s lack of big-game experience or hardened finals veterans, the Roosters may look to find some advantage in pulling the Panthers into an arm wrestle style affair on Friday night.

Look for Keary and the Roosters to play the long game rather than go for the kill shot, every time.

There has also been plenty of chatter in the media space this week concerning a plan to send extra traffic at Jarome Luai on Penrith’s left edge - mind-blowing, we know. 

While he isn’t quite a defensive liability, Luai’s average 2.6 missed tackles per game will surely be a target for right edge back rower Sitili Tupouniua and the Roosters on Friday night. 

Tupouniua has established himself as a regular first-grader this season to start in the back row since Round 13, but a glance at his numbers highlights an area the defending premiers can improve. 

While getting through plenty of defensive work, Tupouniua has averaged just 38 running meters over the past month of football, with zero line breaks or tackle busts registered in his last four games.

With Angus Crichton returning to form in recent weeks, it won’t surprise to see the former State of Origin rep revert to his preferred edge position at some point on Friday night, if the Roosters look to manage Tupouniua’s playing load.

Nevertheless, we’ll be looking for Tupouniua or Crichton to get one-on-one against the much smaller Luai, either close to the line or in yardage sets like this:

Luai has had plenty of help from backrower Viliame Kikau in defence this season - the big Fijian ranks sixth among all backrowers for one-on-one tackles in 2020, and has played the role of Luai’s defensive bodyguard with aplomb.

But with Kikau averaging just a tick over 60 minutes per game this season, the Roosters may be presented with a weakness when Kurt Capewell (4 missed tackles last week) gives Kikau a spell and forms a relatively inexperienced defensive combination with Luai on Penrith’s left edge. 

Tips

Jason: The 52-point defeat last week doesn’t come into it a lot for me on Friday. The Panthers have been incredible all season but my trust remains with Trent Robinson and the Roosters. Their defence is good enough to handle Penrith’s still questionable efficiency in good ball and nobody doubt’s Sydney’s attack. Roosters by 7.

Oscar: While their winning streak has impressed, Penrith are yet to be dragged into a genuine 80-minute arm wrestle this season, and this Roosters squad is capable of doing just that. Once they’re in the grind, the defending premiers’ experience should rise to the top. Roosters by 4.

---

Subscribe to Rugby League Writers: Two articles on a Monday to recap the round, and another two on Thursday to preview the next one.

Socials

Rugby League Writers on Twitter, Facebook & Instagram

Jason Oliver on Twitter & Facebook