NRL Finals: Raiders v Sharks Preview
Saturday's first match features the beaten 2020 grand finalists taking on a side yet to record a win over a Top 8 team.
While the Canberra Raiders ‘B’ team still managed to get past the Cronulla Sharks in Round 20, Sunday is far from a foregone conclusion.
Nothing ever is in rugby league.
We’re diving into all four games this weekend. We will take a look at how it all played out the last time these two met, what each side needs to do to win, and wrap it up with our tips.
2020 Head-to-head Recap
Round 20: Canberra 38 def. Cronulla 28
Recent form lines may be a hint of what’s to come on Saturday afternoon, as the Canberra Raiders and Cronulla Sharks meet for the second time in as many weeks following the Raiders’ 38-28 win in Round 20.
Ricky Stuart sent out what was virtually a reserve grade Canberra outfit last weekend, and they still got the job done against a Sharks side that still hasn’t beaten a fellow Top 8 team in 2020.Â
With so many stars sitting on the sidelines, Tom Starling stood tall for the Raiders with a commanding performance from dummy half, finishing the match with one try, three try assists and 48 tackles to boot.
Just as we touched on earlier in the year, Cronulla’s defence was found wanting as the Raiders crossed for soft tries to Dunamis Lui, Starling, Sam Williams and Kai O’Donnell through the centre third of the field.Â
Only the Brisbane Broncos (26) have conceded more tries through their middle this season than Cronulla (21), who give away mobility for size in the pack with big bodies like Braeden Hamlin-Uele, Aaron Woods and Andrew Fifita all poor lateral movers in the defensive line.
Starling’s own try against Cronulla last week exposed exactly that, as Woods and Hamlin-Uele got caught up in the ruck and were too slow to reset on their own try line.
Ryan Sutton takes a settling hit up and manages to get in between the big bodies of Aaron Woods and Braden Hamlin-Uele close to the line:
The two props are slow to get to their feet and as Sutton plays the ball, you can see Cronulla fullback Will Kennedy (top left) gesturing for Woods to get to A-defender on the left-hand side of the ruck - but he is too slow:
Hamlin-Uele is in position at marker but can’t match Starling for speed, as the crafty hooker shapes right before diving low back in behind the ruck - right into where Kennedy was telling Woods to go.
The Sharks ran for more meters, missed fewer tackles and had more time in possession than the Raiders last week, but still fell 10 points short.
With Canberra welcoming no less than nine players back into their starting lineup this week, it won’t surprise to see those numbers level out a bit and the scoreline skewed accordingly…
Deciding Factors for Saturday
Raiders - Spine Advantage
With Cronulla’s - and the NRL’s - best try assister of 2020 watching from the sidelines on Saturday night, Canberra’s playmakers will be confident of outplaying their opposites as Will Kennedy, Chad Townsend, Connor Tracey and Blayke Brailey line up in the Sharks’ spine for the first time this season.
In comparison, the Raiders playmaking combination of Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Jack Wighton and George Williams have played 56 of a possible 60 games this year, while Starling has gone from strength to strength since joining the first-grade squad in Round 10.
It’s no secret the Canberra will look to attack through the middle third of the field - it worked so well for them last week, despite missing a raft of big-name middle forwards to help get over the advantage line.
The Sharks simply do not have the mobility to go with Canberra once they have momentum, and it won’t surprise to see the Raiders look to barge over through Lui or big Josh Papalii close to the ruck following a quick play the ball or some second-phase play.
The likes of Joseph Tapine (30 offloads, 5th in NRL) have shown they are more than capable of producing these opportunities - it’s not difficult to imagine something like this happening against a scattered Cronulla defensive line on Saturday:
But the Sharks should also expect plenty of traffic to come down their right edge on Saturday afternoon, with Wighton and his back row partner Elliott Whitehead combining beautifully this season.
Whitehead is equally adept at running razor-sharp lines off Wighton’s shoulder as he is acting as a link man to his outside backs, and he will ask plenty of questions of rookie half Connor Tracey this weekend.
Tracey’s own back-row partner Briton Nikora will also be under pressure following a few poor defensive efforts in recent weeks - he shot out of the line to give Starling half a chance last week:
With Whitehead posing a constant threat down Canberra’s left edge, we’ll be watching for Wighton’s big left foot step back infield if Nikora comes out of his defensive line like this again.
Sharks - The Middle (All of it)
The Sharks have scored just 16.1 points per game against Top 8 sides this season while conceding 31 points per game. You don’t need a calculator to know that those aren’t promising numbers ahead of a finals campaign.
But teams still need to play the games and we know better than to write anybody off in rugby league.
So, with Shaun Johnson unavailable and their attack a shadow of itself without him, the Sharks need to recapture their grit and grind approach to winning football games. It defined their 2018 season but has worn away as time goes by. By design based on John Morris’ comments in the preseason:
"I get sick of hearing that the Sharks need to play a tough, gritty, grinding style of footy. Says who? It's a completely different team from the one that won the comp in 2016 and we have a completely different playing style."
Well, John. It’s your best bet at winning this one.
It starts with the big boys in the middle. Braden Hamlin-Uele, Toby Rudolf, Aaron Woods, Siosifa Talakai, Jack Williams and Andrew Fifita all need to perform well on Saturday evening. But rather than focusing all of their attention into completing strong carries and getting up the field - we know they can do that - the Sharks middle forwards need to close up in defence.
Oscar has already covered the cruel things Tom Starling did to them last week. It’s a theme that has run all season, though.
Adam Reynolds exposed lazy efforts by Woods and Fifita back in Round 5:
Morris swiftly moved Fifita to the bench to split them up, but Cameron McInnes embarrassed the pair in Round 11:
Whether or not the Raiders showed their hand early and hit the Sharks where they struggle most in Round 20, closing up the middle this week is paramount. There is no chance of an upset without it. From there, what is a capable Sharks middle attack can get to work.
Woods will accumulate his metres, Hamlin-Uele’s late footwork has contributed to a handful of Sharks scoring actions already this season, Rudolf does well to get to his front and promote a quick play-the-ball, and Talakai is proving to be one of the most destructive ball-runners in the competition right now.
If the Sharks can get into the grind defensively and force the hand of the Raiders by keeping them scoreless for a lengthy period to start, what the middle offers in attack can come to the fore. There is plenty of talent in the backline for the Sharks to find points if their middle holds up their end on both sides of the ball early.
Tips
Jason: As a believer in the Sharks all year, there is still a part of me - even without Johnson - that believes in them. Not enough to tip them, though…Unlike Raiders teams in the past, this group knows how to work through poor periods and come out the other side. Even if the Sharks can outperform their recent weeks and push them, the Raiders should be too good in the end. Raiders by 12.
Oscar: It’s been a problem area for them all year, and unfortunately Cronulla haven’t been able to get it right. Leaking so many soft tries through their middle means the Sharks have often been forced to chase big score lines to get the result, and without Johnson pulling the strings the Sharks simply don’t have the points in them to outscore their opponents anymore. Raiders by 14.
Subscribe to Rugby League Writers: Two articles on a Monday to recap the round, and another two on Thursday to preview the next one.