NRL Finals: Roosters v Raiders Preview
The Sydney Roosters host the Canberra Raiders in a rematch of the 2019 Grand Final
We’re diving into both games this weekend. We will take a look at how it all played out the last time these two met, what each side needs to do to win, and wrap it up with our tips.
2020 Head-to-head Recap
Round 10: Raiders 24 def. Roosters 20
Canberra’s Round 10 win over the defending premiers is remembered by many in the capital as ‘the Tom Starling game’. At least, it was until he destroyed Cronulla in Round 20.
Starling’s excellent club debut played a part, but the main takeaway from this match was how easy the Raiders did it through the middle of the field.
Dunamis Lui scored under the posts off a Joseph Tapine offload close to the line. Caved into the middle of the field, the Roosters gave Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad acres of space to roll one in for Jarrod Croker to score. George Williams skipped past three would-be tacklers with relative ease to fall under the posts. To cap things off, Starling threw a lovely ball for Josh Papalii to score what turned out to be the match-winner.
Round 17: Roosters 18 def. Raiders 6
If Round 10 was the original Tom Starling game, the Round 17 encounter between the two is ‘the SBW game’.
Sonny Bill Williams returned to the NRL to play his first game in the competition since 2014. While he only played 14 minutes in Sydney’s 18-6 win, we caught the slightest glimpse of what was to come from the 35-year-old.
Clunky and not all that effective on this occasion, Williams approaching the line before shifting it wide has become a key part to his game and the Roosters attack.
The match also marked Sami Valemei’s first-grade debut. He became a target for the Roosters with kicks regularly sent in his direction and an error contributing to Sydney’s first try of the night. Valemei wasn’t the only Raiders winger to struggle. Nick Cotric had no hope of beating Daniel Tupou to the ball on this one, and it’s something the Roosters may look to again this week:
With both sides having their moments throughout the 160 minutes they have played each other in 2020, the third installment of this growing rivalry shapes as a beauty.
Deciding Factors for Friday
Roosters - Middle Defence
The Roosters got touched up by the Raiders middle back in Round 10, so it’s already a focus. But it’s how things changed last week that really highlights how important Sydney’s middle defence is, and the value that Jake Friend can add in his return.
The tri-colours started the match in perfect fashion.
In attack, the Roosters rolled up the field, earned quick play-the-balls and scored two tries inside 10 minutes including this short side classic:
In defence, the Roosters didn’t allow the Panthers to get on the front foot. They barely got five metres up the field from where Brian To’o was tackled on the 1st to Stephen Crichton’s play-the-ball on the 3rd:
James Tamou and Liam Martin can only add another ten metres for Nathan Cleary to kick just 15 metres in front of where To’o completed the first play-the-ball of the set:
Note that Freddy Lussick only made first-contact on one tackle in that set.
Then came the turning point. With Brett Morris bundled into touch and the Panthers earning a penalty on the back of the ensuing scrum, the tide turned. Penrith all of a sudden got a role on up the field, and it was little Lussick they picked on to do it.
After the Roosters made strong contact on the tackle of the tap, James Fisher-Harris and Isaah Yeo both picked out Lussick in the line and ran straight for him:
Tamou and Fisher-Harris made sure to get Lussick involved in the next two tackles as well:
The extra yardage by picking out the little man helped the Panthers get up the field. By the time Jarome Luai took possession in good ball and began the try-scoring shift, Lussick was gassed. Perhaps it wouldn’t have made a difference given Joey Manu’s poor read, but Lussick doesn’t offer a lot of support on the inside and the Roosters concede out wide:
Friend’s return will remove the individual weakness to Sydney’s middle defence, but it doesn’t solve all of their issues. This is a side that can hold any pack from getting up the field on their day. However, as we’ve seen over the last fortnight, this group can begin to fade when it isn’t coming as easy as it has done in the opening 10-15 minutes.
The Raiders are an 80-minute team in 2020. They will keep coming at the Roosters until the final siren. It’s up to the Roosters middle defence to peg them in their own end and build pressure. From there, their attack can pile up the points.
Raiders - Unconventional yet Effective
As far as offensive structures go, the Canberra Raiders are one of the least conventional attacking teams in the competition. While so many clubs set for block shape shifts or set plays, the Raiders attack with a creative freedom that is both entertaining to watch and difficult to defend against.Â
None of Canberra’s six tries last weekend - admittedly against a lacklustre Cronulla defence - were what you could consider conventional, planned rugby league tries:
Joseph Tapine’s solo effort on what was effectively a settler hit-up
George Williams’ intercept try
Jack Wighton’s quick tap
Wighton’s impressive catch from a Williams’ chip kick
William’s barge-over try
Elliott Whitehead’s try from a Jarrod Croker grubberÂ
The Raiders’ 32 points from just 19 tackles inside Cronulla’s 20 last weekend means two things: one; the Raiders are taking their opportunities in good ball sets and two; they can hurt you from anywhere.
We covered Wighton’s highlight reel earlier in the week as he somehow latched onto a George Williams cross-field chip kick before returning the favour shortly after by putting his halves partner over in the 56th minute. There may have been some luck involved in Wighton’s leaping effort, but the skill and execution the Raiders displayed to take these half chances and convert them into points is a trait we have associated with the Sydney Roosters in recent seasons.
When the Raiders are getting to good areas on the field, their creative players are executing under pressure more often than not. But even when they’re not in attacking territory, Canberra have shown the ability to produce points when they need it most.
Elliott Whitehead’s 65th minute try against the Sharks all but sealed the result for the Raiders last weekend, and the work from his teammates in the lead up is a perfect example of how Canberra have been able to attack from anywhere on the park this season:
Jarrod Croker takes a carry from his 20-metre line, angling back in behind the ruck where Cronulla are slow to come off their line. He plays the ball quickly and before the Sharks are set, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad takes off:
Some good dummy-half work from Tom Starling gets Jordan Rapana again arcing in behind the ruck a few tackles later, and all of a sudden Canberra are just 20 metres out from the Sharks’ line and on the attack:
It’s now fifth tackle and Sione Katoa has dropped back for the kick, which Wighton notices. In a split second he sums up the numbers, skips to the outside of Briton Nikora before firing an early cut-out ball to the chest of Croker with room to move:
Katoa comes up to shut down the play but he can’t get there in time. Croker’s grubber sits up perfectly in the space where Katoa would have been covering, and Whitehead beats all comers to ground the ball in the in-goal - slick.Â
This is a Canberra squad that has become adept at absorbing pressure when the game is in the grind and then striking when they need to. The way the likes of Luke Keary and James Tedesco were able to turn half-chances into full ones and swing the momentum of a game was a big part of the Roosters’ success in ’18 and ’19, but Wighton and the Raiders are giving it a good shake this year round.Â
‘If you can’t beat em, join em!’
Tips
Jason: While SBW isn’t what he once was, he still has a role to play in this Roosters attack and his return is encouraging. Jake Friend’s return to hooker even more so. Lussick played relatively well last week, but Friend adds so much to the side and won’t be picked out in defence like the young fella. Everybody knows not to write the Raiders off - they’re a resilient side and don’t know when to give up - but I expect the quality of the Roosters to finish the job they started last week. Roosters by 8.
Oscar: The Roosters were far from their best last week, and still fell just one point short against this year’s Minor Premiers. I can’t see them offering their opposition so many chances again this weekend, and while Canberra are no slouches they haven’t posted points in the same manor Penrith have this season. This is certainly anyone’s game, but I think the Roosters’ best - if they can find it - might still be just too good. Roosters by 4.
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