NRL Finals: Storm v Eels Preview
We're presented with a genuine blockbuster on Saturday night as the Storm take on an improving Eels outfit.
The Melbourne Storm kickoff yet another finals campaign when they host the Parramatta Eels at Suncorp Stadium on Saturday night.
While the form guides suggest a Melbourne victory, we’ve seen too much good footy out of Parramatta this season to write them off.
We’re diving into all four games this weekend. We will take a look at how it all played out the last time these two met, what each side needs to do to win, and wrap it up with our tips.
2020 Head-to-head Recap
Round 15: Eels 14 def. Storm 0
These two sides last met in Round 15 but we can’t read too much into Parramatta’s 14-0 win. Melbourne played without Suliasi Vunivalu, Jahrome Hughes, Cameron Munster, Jesse Bromwich, Cameron Smith and Dale Finucane. Only Finucane remains on the sideline for Week 1 of the finals.
While keeping any Storm side to nil is impressive, the struggles the Eels displayed in attack continued to be a theme right up to the end of the regular season.
The Eels had a plan to use Blake Ferguson in the air against Josh Addo-Carr in Round 15. The Eels winger won that battle more often than not.
In a season in which Ferguson has struggled overall, he still poses a threat under the high-ball and the Eels looked to use that whenever they could
When not looking to the air down the right side, the Eels found success on the ground.
Ryan Matterson released an offload to Waqa Blake to score after Clint Gutherson beat Tino Fa’asuamaleaui at A to create the numbers.
Later, Mitchell Moses’ quick hands released Matterson down the right edge.
It came after the Storm made a concerted effort to fly out at Moses. Lacking in attack himself, Craig Bellamy tried to pressure the opposition’s key playmaker. It worked at times, but Moses was good enough to make Melbourne pay when their timing was off.
The Storm attack never fired with Ryley Jacks and Cooper Johns in the halves. Their doughnut on the scoreboard, single line break and 29 tackles inside the opposition 20-metre line (to Parramatta’s 19) sums up their struggles.
While an encouraging result for the Eels on the night, it’s not one they will spend a lot of time dissecting in the build-up to a much tougher test on Saturday night.
Deciding Factors for Saturday
Storm - Looking Left
Cameron Smith is a genius out of dummy half and has toyed with opposing defences around the ruck all season.
Quite often using Nelson Asofa-Solomona and Tino Fa’asuamaleaui in tandem, he hits the right player at the right time close to the line more often than not.
He uses Felise Kaufusi as the lead here, but it’s a play Smith and his big fellas have worked all year.
Brandon Smith tried it on against the Eels in Round 15. He looked to isolate the massive Asofa-Solomona onto Reed Mahoney, but the Eels rake did well to slow him down until support arrived.
While the Smith to Asofa-Solomona/Fa’asuamaleaui combination will be something the Storm work towards, they’ll have also circled the right edge of the Eels defence.
Parramatta have conceded an NRL-low five tries in the middle of the field this season (10% of their total). They’ve forced teams to go around them with a near impenetrable middle defence. Working around the ruck won’t be such a fruitful avenue for Smith and the Storm attack this week.
It’s the 27 tries down the right side (53%) that is the worry for the Eels and a target for the Storm.
The Blake Ferguson/Waqa Blake defensive combination leaves a lot to be desired. With Cameron Munster a terror down that side of the field and coming into better form as the season goes on, it’s an area that will go a long way to determining the final result.
Munster’s inclusion back in Round 15 could have changed the result of that match. A lack of execution and the absence of the Queensland five-eighth saved the Parramatta pair once or twice.
With the hard work done and two players open outside Ferguson, Jacks makes the wrong read and hits Kenny Bromwich with the short ball. Munster finishes that play more often than not.
Presented with a chance to hit the short side later on, a lack of cohesion and communication results in the ball going to ground. Again, put Munster on that side and replace Brandon with Cameron and the execution is likely a lot different.
Melbourne can score from anywhere on the field. Having one of the greatest players of all time touching the ball 115+ times per game affords them that luxury. But with Parramatta’s deficiencies down their right edge, it’s an area a full-strength Melbourne left side can expose this time around.
Eels - The Yardage Battle
Parramatta’s middles have not only enjoyed a defensive dominance in 2020, but with the ball in hand, they finished the regular season as close to the most damaging pack in the competition.
After twenty games, the Eels rank 2nd in the NRL for running meters and 1st for post-contact meters.
The starting trio of Reagan Campbell-Gillard, Nathan Brown and Junior Paulo have all contributed career-best yardage numbers this season, as their mix of size, strength and skill gives Parramatta’s pack a point of difference in the way they work upfield.
Throw in Reed Mahoney - who’s craft out of dummy half had him in State of Origin conversations early in the year - and the towering Shaun Lane and Ryan Matterson, and the Eels have a forward rotation that can hurt you from anywhere.
The problem is, lately they haven’t been.
The Eels produced five line breaks and 15 offloads - most of them through the middle third of the field - against the Storm when they last met, and that second phase play proved effective against a usually well organised Melbourne defensive system.
They won the yardage battle and generated some quick play-the-balls and second phase footy around the ruck, and Gutherson or Moses were good enough to do the rest.
But since that win over an understrength Melbourne six weeks ago, Parramatta have managed their season average running meters just once - against the faltering Brisbane Broncos in Round 19.
For whatever reason, the Eels forward pack is not barrelling its way upfield with ease like we saw in the first half of the season, and as a result, their attack is suffering.
Even in that win over the Storm in Round 15, Parramatta looked awkward and forced at times as they looked to shift the ball early to the edges before making inroads through the middle:
Clint Gutherson fields a bomb in his own half and returns the ball to the 40 metre line.
It’s only first tackle, yet Michael Jennings immediately looks to shift wide to Mitchell Moses who also plays sideways instead of direct:
Moses seemingly has Ryley Jacks beat on the outside, but he doesn’t straighten to engage Justin Olam before passing to Blake Ferguson, meaning the stocky centre can easily slide out and make the tackle.
Like we touched on earlier in the season, the rule changes this year have increased ruck speeds, which causes defensive lines to compress and ultimately leave more space on the edges. The best teams in the competition are working their way up the centre of the field to disrupt defensive systems and draw defenders out of position, before quickly shifting to the edge to strike players in space.
If Parramatta can get back to winning the yardage battle through the middle first, they should experience more joy attacking on the edges against sliding or retreating defensive lines.
Tips
Jason: I tipped the Storm to win the premiership a few months ago now and haven’t wavered. They know how to get their side to peak at the right time. The Eels, however, haven’t been able to keep up their early-season form and have failed to impress in recent weeks. Storm by 10.
Oscar: Parramatta have the cattle to beat anyone on their day, but it hasn’t been their day for a while now and relying on a sudden change in form against a finals-fit Melbourne Storm outfit isn’t a bet I’d want to be on. The Storm have been clinical when required at points this season, and have shown nothing to suggest they won’t be again this weekend. Storm by 8.
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