NRL Notepad: Round 15
From now through to October, I’ll look back at my notes from the prior round and highlight an area of each team to keep a close eye on from your couch.
Parramatta Eels v Melbourne Storm
Eels
The Eels hammered the Tigers right side upon Mitchell Moses’ return in Round 11. Maika Sivo bagged a double while Shaun Lane scored one and handed out a try assist. Since then, Sivo, Lane and Michael Jennings have failed to score. The trio failed to score a try just twice between Round 1 and 11.
Jennings talked about the lack of ball they’ve been seeing during the week: “We had a bit of a session [on Sunday] just to go over things. We’re taking the wrong options [in attack against the Dragons] but our halves and Reedy [Mahoney] have looked into that. It should be different this week.”
As the Eels look to regroup following a shock loss to the Dragons along with the opportunity to take two points off an injury-ravaged Storm, I’m expecting them to go back to what worked throughout the first 11 rounds of the season.
Storm
While Craig Bellamy is a genius at preparing his own side, his best work often comes about when he reduces the impact of a key player in the opposition.
Down on troops last week, Bellamy sent regular traffic in Luke Keary’s direction. They hammered him with the ball in hand and asked him to make plenty of one on one tackles early. Eventually, Keary tried to make his life easier and shot out of the line. With Keary trying to meet Feliese Kaufusi as he received the ball, Sitili Tupouniua over commits to helping his little man while Isaac Liu is slow in moving up with the line.
Jahrome Hughes - who was superb last week - breaks down the defence and sends Kaufusi over.
Hughes might not be there for this one, but I’m interested to see if Bellamy employs a similar tactic with Dylan Brown.
Penrith Panthers v Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks
Panthers
The Panthers have re-signed a good one in Liam Martin. He’s quickly becoming a personal favourite with his relentless hard-running and sneaky footwork doing more for the Panthers right-side attack than is given credit.
His mobility on the edge allows the Panthers to search for metres wide early into sets. Some subtle footwork leaves Brad Parker behind here before a burst of speed is almost enough to release a clean offload:
It won’t show up on the stats sheet, but Martin digging into the line here opens up the space out wide for Brent Naden to fall over in the corner untouched:
As defence’s focus on Viliame Kikau, Stephen Crichton and this lethal left edge, Martin is playing a key role in keeping the right side just as dangerous.
Sharks
The Sharks were level with a fairly average Titans side before Kevin Proctor was sent off in Round 14. Managing to make the most of the one-man advantage to win 30-18, it’s a flattering scoreline in the end.
Yet to beat a Top 8 team and coming off a poor first 40 minutes against a wooden spoon contender, the pressure is on the Sharks to show they aren’t just making up the numbers in the finals. There is little to suggest they’re anything more than Week 1 fodder at the moment.
Shaun Johnson commands an excellent right-side attack that has played a key role in their 25.9 points per game (2nd in the NRL). However, we’re yet to see them put it all together well against teams above them on the ladder. Blessed by the schedule-makers to have only played three games against a side currently above them, the Sharks scored 46 points at 15.3 points per game. They scored 24 of those points while conceding 56 points to the Panthers in Round 9.
It’s important that we see the Sharks get a few past an elite defence this week.
Brisbane Broncos v St. George-Illawarra Dragons
Broncos
Honestly, this might be a good time to get some brownie points in the bank and allocate this Friday night to family and partners. The Broncos are that bad at the moment.
If you’re a sucker for punishment, look no further than the Broncos middle. No team is running for fewer metres than Brisbane’s 1,446 metres. They’re without Payne Haas’ 179 metres per game for this one too.
While the Dragons have their own issues, getting up the field isn’t one of them. They rank 5th in the NRL with 1,801 running metres per game.
If we see signs of a competent Broncos middle early, they might just be able to compete in this one. If not, they’re in for yet another long night.
Dragons
He doesn’t want to be there, but Ben Hunt at hooker works.
The makeshift dummy half is looking more comfortable with every game he plays behind the ruck. He’s threatening to run more and his combination with Adam Clune is developing nicely.
We’ve seen what Hunt can do when he spies a retreating defensive line. He looked to run a little wider than most hookers might in this situation and target areas of the defensive line he otherwise would while playing halfback:
In Round 14, his long pass out of dummy half allows Clune to get on the outside of Waqa Blake and shift the ball into space out wide early in the count:
Hunt is doing himself no favours playing this well at hooker. There’s a good chance he digs in a little deeper against his former side this week too.
Gold Coast Titans v Canberra Raiders
Titans
If there is one thing Ash Taylor has always been able to do regardless of form, it’s throwing a good long ball.
The Titans have a bright future ahead. Taylor can play a big part if he continues to improve over the last six weeks of the season.
Raiders
The Raiders did what was asked of them last week in keeping the Broncos to single digits.
This week, I want to see them continue their try-scoring ways against a Titans side that knows how to give up points (26.2 per game). The 36 points scored in Round 14 was just the second time in six weeks the Raiders cracked 20 points. They need to find a little more consistency with the ball in hand if they’re to surprise teams in October.
More specifically, I’m looking for how George Williams spreads himself across the field. He’s popped up on the left side more often recently. When coming back to the right, his combination with John Bateman is proving to be lethal.
Williams is flying under the radar as one of the best halfbacks in the NRL right now. It’s where playing in Canberra in a side few expect to challenge for the premiership can work to his benefit.
But we’ve got our eyes on you, George.
Wests Tigers v Sydney Roosters
Tigers
Regular readers, you’ve heard this before.
In fact, anybody that has seen the Tigers play in 2020 have heard and seen it all themselves. Repeatedly.
The Tigers right-edge defence needs to improve. I’m not sure there is a bigger reason than the turnstile right edge for Wests missing the finals yet again. We know the attack isn’t as good as the 22.4 points per game suggests. But it’s good enough to get them into the Top 8 with a competent defence.
While they’re still a mathematical chance of making the finals, allowing the Bulldogs to score 28 points is enough to put a line through the Tigers.
There is no excuse for David Nofoaluma being so far out of position here:
Here, Benji Marshall is sold a dummy by a hobbled Kieran Foran while Nofoaluma again feels the need to fly in:
The Roosters may be without Luke Keary, but they can still have a field day down that side of the field if the Tigers don’t clean things up.
Roosters
As a fan of Lachlan Lam, it’s a shame to see him lose his place to injury. However, it will be interesting to see how Kyle Flanagan responds to being dropped.
He was made to look good in an excellent Roosters team earlier in the season. Once the team started to struggle overall, Flanagan’s form took a bigger dive than most. Now, he reenters the side as the lead half with Luke Keary unavailable.
We’re going to learn a lot about Flanagan in this one.
South Sydney Rabbitohs v Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles
Rabbitohs
Campbell Graham’s name comes up far too often when taking notes on tries the Rabbitohs concede. He looks unsure of himself and appears to second-guess whether or not he should break out of the line. That extra time he takes to assess the situation has proven costly a few times already this season.
Five minutes against the Panthers in Round 7 sums up Graham defensively and acts as the main concern I have for the Rabbitohs this week as Cade Cust and Joel Thompson begin to develop a handy combination.
Graham gets some good contact on Viliame Kikau to stop the Fijian in his tracks here - a good play.
But two tackles later, Graham shoots out to get at Jarome Luai who sees it coming and lets the ball go through to Stephen Crichton.
That miss didn’t cost Graham and the Rabbitohs, but when he rushed out of the line and turned in on Kikau just five minutes later, Crichton had a clear path to pounce on Luai’s grubber.
Sea Eagles
Taniela Paseka was Manly’s best last week. He dominated through the middle and used his size and strength to create try-scoring opportunities.
This one is the most encouraging:
Paseka isn’t going to break the line every time, but using Jake Trbojevic as a ball-player to isolate the big man on either the backrower or half will at least offer a consistent source of yardage. Closer to the line, using Paseka as a lead runner can open up opportunities outside him.
While he’s going to find himself in the middle of the field more often than not, pushing Paseka wider when the opportunity is there is something the Sea Eagles should explore.
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs v New Zealand Warriors
Bulldogs
Ofahiki Ogden ran for a career-high 155 metres last week. It’s the best I’ve seen the 24-year-old play and I’m out to see if he can keep it up on Sunday.
The tough carries are there…
…and he threatens to have an impact as a ball-player.
Go well again, Ofahiki.
Warriors
Chanel Harris-Tavita is in doubt for Sunday which is beyond frustrating. He’s finally been given a chance to start in the halves over an extended period and displayed some promising, albeit minor, signs with the ball in Round 14.
Here, Api Koroisau is a little slow off the line and doesn’t get off square. Harris-Tavita steps off the right foot to take the easy metres.
But it’s the play two tackles later that I really like. After mentioning the tempo Nathan Cleary plays with for Stats Insider last week, to see this out of Harris-Tavita is exciting.
Harris-Tavita holds up the ball and delays his run with a pronounce goose-step. Showing the ball to Eli Katoa before hitting the gas and releasing the pass to Kodi Nikorima, Harris-Tavita has forced the defence to consider him as a ball-runner, Katoa as a dump-off option, Adam Pompey as a hole-runner and Nikorima as an option out the back.
A little more polish and George Jennings has a chance to go for the corner.
If Harris-Tavita isn’t available, all eyes fall on 20-year-old Paul Turner who takes his place.
Newcastle Knights v North Queensland Cowboys
We can combine the two teams here because we’re looking at both goal kickers while plugging another article from earlier in the week.
Per Stats Insider’s True Kicker Rating: “Kalyn Ponga has left more points on the tee than any other kicker with at least 20 attempts. His -12.82 represents how many points he has lost for the Knights below the average NRL goal kicker.”
Some of the Knights faithful weren’t very willing to accept Kalyn Ponga struggles off the tee. His poor kicking doesn’t mean that Ponga is not an excellent player - he is, obviously. He’s just not a very good goal kicker right now. It’s fairly simple.
But Kyle Feldt is worse: “Feldt's -12.76% is the worst differential between the average difficulty of kicks attempted and his actual success rate.”
If this game is close, there’s a good chance we revisit the True Kicker Ratings next week.
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