NRL Notepad: Round 4 Preview
From now through to October, I’ll look back at my notes from the prior round and highlight an area of each team to keep a close eye on…
From now through to October, I’ll look back at my notes from the prior round and highlight an area of each team to keep a close eye on from your couch.
The cobwebs have been dusted off and we’ve seen the new six-again rule in action across eight games.
Now, we’re revisiting the Round 3 notepad to highlight areas to pay closer attention to over the long weekend.
NRL Repeat Set: Round 3
It was a long time coming, and despite the lack of close games, Round 3 of the NRL season didn’t disappoint.medium.com
Canberra Raiders v Newcastle Knights
Raiders
“Let’s see how he [George Williams] copes against a Storm side that has picked every Round 1 opponent (this is effectively Round 1) apart since Craig Bellamy’s arrival in Melbourne 17 years ago.”
Well, he coped fine. More than fine. Williams announced himself to the NRL with a match-winning performance last week. This Raiders right-edge attack is all of a sudden spitting fire.
Canberra has only scored 25% of their tries (three total) down the right side so far this season, though. Will Williams’ Round 3 performance see a little more traffic travel down that side of the field?
Knights
First of all, how much time Tex Hoy spends on the field will be interesting. So too will be who Hoy replaces and how he’s used. If he’s used similarly to Connor Watson, Newcastle’s shape in good ball sets is something to keep an eye on.
They set up in the middle with Pearce and Mann on one side, and Watson and Ponga on the other a few times in Round 1 and 2. Pearce and Watson occupied the first receiver roles with Mann and Ponga positioned out the back. They’ve not pulled off a try-scoring sweep with the setup yet, but they’ve not had too many opportunities.
Let’s see how often they target the middle of the field and shape up in this way on Sunday.
Gold Coast Titans v Wests Tigers
Titans
We’re still keeping an eye on their woeful edge defence, but we might be doing that with the Titans all season. Instead, I’d like to see Jamal Fogarty see more of the football. He was a bit of a passenger last week, although, that wasn’t his fault. The 19:06 minutes the Titans had possession of the ball in Round 3 is the second-shortest amount of time any team has had possession this season. The Gold Coast’s 17:25 minutes in Round 2 is the shortest.
Anticipating a more competitive 80 minutes this week, the Titans and, in turn, Fogarty, should see more opportunities with the ball. He showed glimpses last week.
Tigers
It doesn’t matter how they do it: The Tigers must win.
The result is all that matters here.
Up against a Titans outfit on the brink of 12 months without a win, this feels the sort of game a typical Tigers team loses. They’d finish Round 4 at 9th on the ladder with a loss too…
Is this a typical Tigers team, or one that can really challenge for the Top 8?
Harry Grant looked right at home behind the ruck last week while Luke Brooks got straight into his work in return from injury. Benji Marshall is ageless, and so far, has had the benefit of playing behind a relatively strong pack.
The Tigers are playing good footy. But, we’ve seen them look good before. They’ve then crumbled soon after like clockwork.
Beating the Titans can finally start to remove some of the cynicism and begin to turn them into genuine Top 8 contenders.
Parramatta Eels v Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles
Eels
Look at Junior Paulo straighten up to engage the line before throwing a beauty to Clint Gutherson.
Paulo is a 123kg behemoth passing the ball like a diminutive half…
If he’s going to make a habit out of playing at the line, right edge defences will need to chose between targeting him, or the hard-running 198cm and 110 kg Shaun Lane on the edge.
Small halves have a tendency to rush out when they sense a target on their back. Brodie Croft getting out in front of his line created the big gap Lane ran through as the decoy on this occasion.
Halves will only rush out quicker after seeing Paulo pull this off last week.
Add the improving Dylan Brown to the mix, and this Parramatta left-side attack can be the most exciting in the competition.
Sea Eagles
Ask, and you shall receive.
We kept an eye on the Sea Eagles spine last week — brilliant.
This week, we will zero in on Danny Levi.
For whatever reason, Levi didn’t have a fan in Nathan Brown at Newcastle. But he’s a quality footballer. Consistency has been his issue, not only on the field, but in his selection. Looking comfortable at Manly and starting to show the signs of being the Kiwi international he was in 2017, I’d like to see him trust his running game more this week.
Like this…
A lovely pickup before holding it up just long enough to engage Will Hopoate creates the overlap for Jorge Taufua to fly down the left wing. Levi is more than capable having a regular impact out of dummy half.
North Queensland Cowboys v Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks
Cowboys
Valentine Holmes is the obvious choice for this one up against his former club. He has flown under the radar a bit before now, though. Despite being one of North Queensland’s best last week, Scott Drinkwater and Jason Taumalolo received most of the plaudits.
Known more for his kick returns or crossing over in the corner, Holmes has displayed some excellent touches out the back of the classic Cowboys shifts.
He sees Jonas Person coming at him here but keeps composed behind the double-lead play and completes the try-scoring pass.
His quick hands under duress later in the game is more impressive.
This all came against a woeful Titans defence, though. Holmes will face a much sterner test against his old club on Saturday.
Sharks
The Sharks are getting caught out around the ruck far too often to ignore it any longer.
It hadn’t been five minutes before the Tigers found points behind the ruck last week.
The lack of hustle is a trend that started when Cronulla conceded their first try of the season way back in Round 1.
This team has plenty to offer in attack. However, they might be the worst positioned to deal with the new six-again rule based on what we’ve seen out of them defensively so far in 2020.
Brisbane Broncos v Sydney Roosters
Broncos
The Broncos right edge struggled defensively in Round 3. Per Stats Insider’s Try Location Analysis, only the Tigers (9) have conceded more tries down that side than the Broncos so far in 2020.
Brodie Croft was targeted in Round 3. Sending big Shaun Lane at him here, Croft only needs to turn in the slightest bit before Junior Paulo completes a beautiful pass at the line for Clint Gutherson to dive over.
Later, Croft creeps in around the ruck before Lane runs, dead set, right over the top of Kotoni Staggs.
With a left edge made up of Luke Keary, Boyd Cordner, Josh Morris and Daniel Tupou, the Broncos need to make significant improvements if their defence isn’t to resemble a turnstile on Thursday night.
Roosters
Round 1: 204 metres
Round 2: 274 metres
Round 3: 314 metres
James Tedesco is averaging a whopping 264 running metres per game through three rounds. He’s on pace to break the all-time running metres record, even with the season shortened. If healthy for the full 20 rounds and assuming the Roosters play at least two finals matches, Tedesco’s current average gets him to 5,808 running metres — 312 more metres than the current record set by Roger Tuivasa-Sheck.
Ridiculously, Jason Taumalolo is currently ahead of Teddy with an average of 272 metres per game. His injury this week all but removes him from the conversation, though.
It’s early days. There is a good chance Trent Robinson chooses to rest Tedesco at some stage, too. But it’s an interesting record to keep an eye on for the time being. If anybody can break it in a short season, it’s Tedesco.
“Heads In!" Round 4
Unpacking the scrum each week in the NRLmedium.com
Penrith Panthers v New Zealand Warriors
Panthers
I feel like I’ve written this sentence about 30 times over the last two seasons: We need to see the Panthers play the full 80 minutes and develop some consistency.
Their Round 2 win and Round 3 draw look a little too 2018-like to start writing them into the Top 8 just yet.
Nathan Cleary’s absence against the Knights isn’t an excuse for the draw last week. At 14–0 up and with Connor Watson and Mitchell Pearce on the sidelines, the two points should have been in the bag.
80 minutes. That’s all we want.
Warriors
Please, Stephen Kearney.
Play Tohu Harris at lock on Friday night.
He was outstanding in the middle of the field against the Dragons. His ball-playing adds another dimension to the Warriors attack and he’s a stronger runner than he’s ever given credit for. This isn’t a Warriors apologist getting ahead of himself: Harris can sit on the same tier as Jake Trbojevic if he’s given the chance and remains healthy. He’s that good.
Now, we can’t trust Mooks to make the right decision here so we have a backup.
Eli Katoa.
He’s exactly the sort of hard-working and hard-running edge backrower the Warriors need. This play here with Peti Hiku sweeping out the back to keep Zac Lomax wide and to allow Katoa to get one-on-one with Ben Hunt is a beauty.
Let’s see it again.
Melbourne Storm v South Sydney Rabbitohs
Storm
The Storm haven’t scored a try down the left side of the field this season…
Only the Roosters scored more tries down that side of the field (57) than the Storm’s 54 in 2019.
Cameron Munster hasn’t had quite the impact I’m sure Craig Bellamy would like. His receipts are down by over four a game at 41.6 through three rounds, however, he’s added an extra 28 metres per game on the ground for a 126-metre average.
He’s far too good to be worried he won’t regain form, but Munster is a significant factor in the Storm’s attack. They won’t begin to give their current 12 points per game a premiership-contending bump until their five-eighth comes good.
Rabbitohs
Wayne Bennett will surely have had visions of plays like this when filling out the team sheet across the first three rounds.
Latrell Mitchell — on his favoured left side — feeding a hard-running and hole-hitting Cameron Murray on the edge.
We’ve not seen enough of it so far, though.
As a result, Murray is reportedly shifting back to the middle on Friday night with Ethan Lowe slotting into the left-edge backrow. How this not only impacts Murray, but also an under pressure Mitchell who has lost perhaps his best target on sweeping plays, will be interesting to watch in Round 4.
Saturday, Sunday and Monday’s game are to come — real like gets in the way sometimes — so check back in over the weekend.