"Heads In!" Round 16
Unpacking the scrum each week in the NRL
How will the Rabbitohs’ attacking form measure up against the competitions best defence, and have the Dragons left it too late or is the final’s door still ajar?
Whether you’re searching for an edge in the workplace tipping comp, or just desperate to talk some footy, you’ve found the place. Join me as we unpack the scrum that is the NRL each week.
Centre-Field Scrum
What’s centre-frame in the Rugby League lens this week?
Rabbitohs the Real Deal?
South Sydney have put themselves back into premiership conversation with a resounding 56-16 win over an injury ravaged Manly Sea Eagles last weekend. But despite the dominant attacking display, the Rabbitohs’ premiership credentials are still somewhat of an unknown, given their poor record against top-eight teams this year.
Tonight’s match-up against Parramatta will give us a better indication of how good Souths really are, with finals just around the corner.
The Eels are the competition’s best defensive outfit after 15 rounds, and are coming off the back of a 14-0 win over the Melbourne Storm. While their ability to keep Melbourne scoreless last week was impressive, the Eels’ attack was once again a little off the pace.
A game plan to give Waqa Blake early ball against opposing centre Justin Olam felt awkward and forced at times, as Parramatta continued to hurriedly shift the ball through the hands rather than engage the defensive line:
Given Mitchell Moses’ propensity to run the footy, and Campbell Graham’s history of poor decision making when defending in the centres, we might see Parramatta take the ball to the line a little more down that right edge tonight - maybe something like this:
For South Sydney, the attacking form of their spine has been a highlight in recent weeks, as combinations between Latrell Mitchell, Cody Walker, Adam Reynolds and Damien Cook begin to bear fruit.
But it is the improvement of the Rabbitohs’ unsung forward pack that has Souths in good stead with finals approaching, as established leaders Tom Burgess and Cameron Murray continue to impress along with the likes of rookie Bayley Sironen.
This unlikely trio was heavily involved in Alex Johnston’s first try last weekend:
Slotting in at first receiver, Murray takes the ball with Burgess running a strong decoy line beside him, and Souths’ backline fanned out to the right. The presence of Reynolds and Mitchell on Souths’ right edge attracts Daly Cherry-Evans and Corey Waddell, who both come flying out of the line to leave Burgess unmarked.
Murray pushes through the tackle and offloads to Burgess, who charges a further 30 meters upfield. Manly’s defensive line compresses as a result, and Walker knows there will be space on the edge:
Sironen’s role here might seem minimal, but the subtlety of his ball playing should not be understated.
With Mitchell pushing up in support on Sironen’s inside, the young back rower straightens on his run and motions inside which holds up Moses Suli, before releasing a perfectly timed pass to Graham who finds Johnston in the corner.
We’ll be looking to see South Sydney’s forwards stand up and deliver tonight against a Parramatta pack that currently leads the league for run meters and post-contact meters this season.
Right Scrum-Line
Who is feeling the pressure this week?
Playmaker Pressure
It’s getting to that time of the season where clubs and fans start talking about their ‘mathematical chances’ of making the finals.
With the St George Illawarra Dragons joining a raft of teams gathered on 12 points and two wins outside the eight, the pressure is on the Red V and new coach Dean Young to string some wins together and keep their finals hopes alive.
As far as on-field selections go, it appears Tristan Sailor is the biggest loser to come from the sacking of Paul McGregor, with the youngster relegated to the reserves and Corey Norman and Adam Clune holding their spots in the halves.
In 25 games between them this year, Norman and Clune combine for a total four tries and just nine try assists while playing in the halves - typically a position of high attacking output.
To put this in perspective, fullback Matt Dufty has played just 13 games, and has 11 tries and 9 try assists all by himself.
While proving a handful this season, Dufty is too easily nullified when he is the lone target for opposition defenders. Ben Hunt’s move to hooker may have been just as much about his own improved form in that position as it was about getting more attacking options on the park at once for the Dragons, but until Norman and Clune become consistent offensive threats in their own right, St George’s struggles look to continue.
The effect that Gold Coast Titan’s fullback AJ Brimson has had on his fellow playmakers since returning four weeks ago is a perfect example of this can work.
Brimson’s high-quality and high-quantity involvements in the last few games - against top-eight sides Canberra, Sydney and Cronulla no less - have not only been individually impressive, but have freed up Ash Taylor and Jamal Fogarty in the play making department:
Brimson’s presence on the Titan’s right edge here gets the attention of Elliott Whitehead and Jarrod Croker, allowing Fogarty to get one-on-one with Siliva Havili. Fogarty does well to push through the attempted tackle before offloading to a supporting Brimson to score.
Given Gold Coast’s inclination to ball-play close to the line in recent weeks, as well as new hooker Mitch Rein’s tendency to run from dummy-half, expect to see the Titans attack through the middle of the field this week against a Dragons’ pack missing forwards Paul Vaughan and Tariq Sims.
With games against the Raiders, Knights and Storm looming, a loss to the Titans this week would all but put St George Illawarra out of finals contention.
The pressure is well and truely on.
Left Scrum-Line
My left-field thought on the NRL this week
Dogs’ Dummy Dilemma
There hasn’t been a whole lot to like from the Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs this season.
An over-reliance on five-eighth Kieran Foran to produce almost everything in attack has left the ‘Dogs wanting for points too often this year, while a mixture of inexperienced or under-developed outside backs around him have struggled for form.
Incoming coach Trent Barrett already has Nick Cotric and Blake Green joining the squad in 2021 in an attempt to address these issues, and will no doubt recruit more over the off season.
One position that remains unclaimed for the Bulldogs moving forward is dummy-half, where Jeremy Marshall-King and Sione Katoa have battled it out so far this season.
While his form has been underwhelming for the most part of 2020, Marshall-King’s efforts in the last two weeks will have given Barrett something to think about for next season, with the hooker responding brilliantly since being dropped to the bench in Round 13.
While far from flashy - and admittedly against a wanting Warriors’ defence - this passage of play from Marshall-King, among others, is something the Bulldogs can look to replicate over the next five weeks and into next year.
Working out their own end, Foran gets the ball wide off the ruck to pitch Raymond Faitala-Mariner one-on-one against the much smaller Kodi Nikorima. One of the shining lights for Canterbury this season, Faitala-Mariner pushes through the tackle to march the ‘Dogs further upfield:
After a Jason highlighted his involvement the week before, front-rower Ofahiki Ogden had another solid game against the Warriors, taking strong carries like these and bending the line before earning a quick play the ball:
With the defensive line retreating, Marshall-King takes off, splitting the markers with a nice dummy before finding the ever-present Foran in support:
With three try assists in his last two games, Marshall-King is starting to impress, albeit at the wrong end of the season. A few more dominant displays from Marshall-King to close out the year could be enough to convince Barrett he already has a hooker for 2021 and onwards.