NRL Finals: Rabbitohs v Knights Preview
Week 1 of the NRL Finals wraps up with a match between two teams that can produce anything on their day.
South Sydney Rabbitohs v Newcastle Knights.
Across a weekend where most consider the results fairly predictable, this one could be anything given what we’ve seen over the last 20 rounds.
We’re diving into all four games for the weekend. We will take a look at how it all played out the last time these two met, what each side needs to do to win, and wrap it up with our tips.
2020 Head-to-head Recap
Round 10: Knights 20 def. Rabbitohs 18
The Round 10 matchup between these two teams could be used to explain their 2020 seasons.
Inconsistent on both sides of the ball, but an attack so dangerous that anything is possible on the day.
The Newcastle Knights flew out to a 20-0 lead through four tries and a penalty goal. As is so often the case, their left edge did the damage early. Bradman Best, in particular.
His offload to Enari Tuala created Newcastle’s first try:
His strong carry and quick play-the-ball set up their second:
Best later fell on a Kalyn Ponga grubber to score what ended up as the match-winning try.
But Newcastle crumbled as South Sydney started to have their way around the ruck. Mark Nicholls went over all too easily before a Damien Cook five-minute double pulled the Rabbitohs to within two points with eight minutes to play.
Darting out of dummy half to score following an Alex Johnston break, Cook then won the race to a Jaxson Paulo grubber for his second. The Rabbitohs again went close but couldn’t complete the comeback.
The defining moment came with three minutes to play. As Cody Walker applied his famous left-foot step to leave Ponga on the ground, Mitchell Barnett’s strong covering tackle is all that stopped the Knights from blowing all of their 20-point lead.
Brilliant throughout the match and buying into his role as the enforcer, it’s the last time Barnett started on the bench with his form since landing him in the State of Origin conversation.
Deciding Factors for Sunday
Rabbitohs - Attacking Variation
The Rabbitohs are a left-side dominant team. Only the Panthers have scored more tries down that side of the field than the Rabbitohs’ 45 this season.
It being Latrell Mitchell’s favoured side at fullback had an influence on South Sydney’s left-leaning attack. The stellar form of Cody Walker has kept the overall focus down that side since Mitchell’s injury too. However, the improved play of Corey Allan at the back and the reliability South Sydney have found in his quick hands have allowed them to explore down the right side regularly enough to keep the defence honest.
Oscar highlighted the influence Allan has had on the Rabbitohs attack earlier in the week.
But it’s Adam Reynolds and Walker sweeping over to the right side that has provided the Rabbitohs with the sustainable variation in attack they lacked this time last year. While Souths scored 34 points against the Sea Eagles in Week 2 of the 2019 finals, they managed a combined 16 points against the Roosters and Raiders in Week 1 and 3.
They look better-positioned to offer more with the ball in hand this time around.
Reynolds is an excellent halfback and few can fill their role in a system better than the 30-year-old. He’s taken his game to another level since Mitchell’s injury, though. Including the game Mitchell left the field for the season, Reynolds has averaged 77 running metres per game. He averaged just 42 metres per game in the 15 games prior.
He’s not just “running the ball more” like many blindly demand of a halfback. Reynolds is digging into the line demanding the attention of the defence. It’s not something we’ve seen a lot from Reynolds throughout his career. His career-high in yardage is 56 metres (2019) which really highlights how much more he has run the football over the last month.
This Walker try last week was a beauty and captures the influence of a running Reynolds:
Reynolds digs into the line, Cameron Murray executes the decoy to perfection and Walker strolls over.
The change in tempo he used on this run in Round 16, while shaping to dump-off to a forward in the middle, bamboozled the Parramatta defence for Walker to skip through the line to score:
A week later, Reynolds skipped over to the left side. He shaped to dump it off, there’s Murray again with an aggressive decoy run, and Walker only needs the smallest of gaps to score with the form he’s in:
This is the Rabbitohs at the moment. They’re playing both sides of the ball with Walker and Reynolds featuring across the park. Walker as a hybrid five-eighth/fullback and the new-and-improved Reynolds taking on the line and making plays.
And after all of that, there is still Damien Cook who inspired South Sydney’s comeback against the Knights in Round 10:
The Knights need to do a lot more than simply shut down the left edge if they’re to keep a lid on this Rabbitohs attack.
Knights - Sharing the Load
With first-choice outside backs Bradman Best and Edrick Lee once again making up a strong left edge pairing for Newcastle, it won’t surprise to see the Knights venture down this side heavily like they did back in Round 10.
Lee will take a comfortable aerial advantage into Sunday’s match against Rabbitohs’ winger Jaxson Paulo, while Best’s ankle injury does not seem to have tempered his devastating running game.
The main difference between then and now, however, is the inclusion of Mason Lino at five-eighth since Kurt Mann was forced into the hooker position.
Mann was enjoying a career-best season down that left edge before answering Newcastle’s dummy-half crisis, linking effectively with his outside backs while constantly posing a threat with his strong running game to average 105 running meters on the way to five tries and six try assists in 12 games at five-eighth.
In comparison, Lino has managed just two try assists and a meagre 38 average running meters in his five games alongside Mitchell Pearce in the halves, and needs to ask more questions of the defence on Sunday than he has in recent weeks.
So much of Newcastle’s attack comes off the back of Pearce and Ponga, and opposition defences often react accordingly. If Lino can threaten South Sydney a little more down that left edge, it should buy his fellow playmakers some more time in attacking sets.
With Lee and Best sure to attract plenty of attention on the flank, Lino must be prepared to take the space and run himself if Souths are too quick to slide in defence.
This game is as good a chance as any for Lino to make an impression, as he looks to target the relatively inexperienced Campbell Graham at right centre for the Rabbitohs.
Graham has impressed with the ball in hand since switching to centre this season - he has scored 10 tries in his last 7 games while contributing over 141 running meters each week to become a go-to man for Souths in backline shifts and yardage sets alike.
But as he transitions from wing to centre, Graham still has some poor defensive reads in him that Newcastle will be looking to exploit on Sunday afternoon.
Graham let Josh Morris get outside him last week, and couldn’t stop the veteran from charging to the try line:
It’s not difficult to picture Bradman Best trying a similar move this week.
And then later in the match, Graham screamed off his line to shut down Luke Keary but failed to make the tackle, and the Roosters were in again:
He might only be presented with a handful of half-chances like these, but Lino has to nail them on Sunday if the Knights are a chance of playing deep into the finals.
Tips
Jason: I really liked the Rabbitohs to start the season. Then I didn’t. I really liked them when Latrell Mitchell started to fire. Not so much following his injury…But with Corey Allan surprising at the back to ensure the Rabbitohs play with one of the best spines left in the competition, I’m back on board. At least for this week. Rabbitohs by 6.
Oscar: If it wasn’t for the horror handling displays they have served up at random times this season, the Rabbitohs would be as close to a sure thing as you’ll get this weekend, for mine. Newcastle have won just two of their last five games and even their best in recent weeks doesn’t measure up against some of the offensive form South Sydney have displayed in the last month. Rabbitohs by 13.
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