NRL Finals: Storm v Raiders Preview

The Melbourne Storm play host at their home away from home to the Canberra Raiders in Week 3 of the NRL Finals.

We’re diving into both games this weekend. We will take a look at how it all played out the last time these two met and what each side needs to do to win.

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Head-to-Head in 2020

Round 3: Raiders 22 def. Storm 6

If you didn’t know George Williams before Round 3 this season, you certainly did after he put together a Man of the Match performance for the Raiders to beat the Storm in Melbourne.

We saw it all from the Englishman. His two try assists helped Canberra pile up the points to win:

He also offered an early glimpse into his strengths as a defender:

Melbourne didn’t play their best footy in Round 3. Clunky at times and un-Melbourne-like for a lot of it, they bombed two tries across the 80 minutes too. As it turns out, this Canberra win was the sort that they’ve become known for: Determined, gritty, workmanlike.

Round 9: Storm 20 def. Raiders 14

This match marked an end to 2020 for Josh Hodgson and Bailey Simonsson who both failed to finish the game. For many, it signalled the end to Canberra’s premiership hopes with their top tier hooker instantly ruled out for the season.

But here we are…

Plenty will remember this game for the Siminsson sin-bin. A significant turning point in the match with the Raiders going toe-to-toe at the time, the Storm wrestled control through Josh Addo-Carr’s try and never released the pressure.

Just as the Storm did in the first match between these two, the Raiders left points on the field. Elliott Whitehead’s dropped ball just short of the line proved pivotal. Down by only eight points at the time, Ryan Papenhuyzen’s incredible solo effort pushed Melbourne’s lead out to 14 just three minutes after Whitehead’s fumble:

Kai O’Donnell started at lock in this match, Michael Oldfield in the centres, Hudson Young in the back row while Hodgson and Simonsson were out there to start it. It was a very different Raiders team to what we’re seeing this week. Meanwhile, Cameron Munster, Feliese Kaufusi and Suliasi Vunivale all sat this one out for the Storm.

We’ve been able to read a little bit into other finals matches by looking back in the season, but this is a fresh head-to-head battle.

Deciding Factors for Friday

Storm - Patience

Even a Canberra Raiders fan sitting in a bath of milk will tell you the Melbourne Storm have the better squad this week.

They’re led by arguably the best player of all time and one of the games greatest coaches. At the very least, Cameron Smith and Craig Bellamy are the best one-two-punch in the NRL era.

Laden with representative talent from one wing to the other, the balance of the Melbourne side is close to perfect. They have the tinkerman in Smith touching the ball over 100 times a game, working the team around the field with freakish accuracy and precision. He can create a try 50-metres up the field and 45 seconds before it’s scored when things go to plan.

In Jesse Bromwich, Christian Welch, Nelson Asofa-Solomona, Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, Brandon Smith and quite possibly Dale Finucane manning the middle this week, Smith will be given the stage to perform his magic.

We’ve talked about the danger of Smith feeding his big fellas around the ruck numerous times already this season. His latest masterclass came against the Cowboys in Round 18:

Smith’s other creative partners - Cameron Munster, Jahrome Hughes and Ryan Papenhuyzen - can all offer moments of brilliance themselves. While Munster has been quiet in 2020, he’s capable of a match-winning performance on the day. Conversely, Hughes and Papenhuyzen are in career-best form. Their development throughout the season and into viable long-term options in the spine is a major difference between the 2019 Storm side that lost to the Roosters in Week 3, and this group favoured to make it through to the Grand Final.

Melbourne are favourites for a reason, but as we’ve seen once or twice this season, they aren’t invincible. They failed to put away a Roosters side riddled with errors (18) until golden point in Round 8. The Panthers turned the screws on the Storm just a fortnight earlier forcing 11 errors, winning the middle, and playing a lot better at the back end of their 21-14 win.

These poor periods haven’t been common for the Storm - Smith wouldn’t allow it. But they have been there this year. It’s important that they get into the grind early and wait for their opportunities this week - allow their superior talent to overcome a plucky Raiders team.

Play with patience and force the Raiders to either; a) play a blinder or, b) make mistakes and chase the game.

Jack Wighton is an active defender and an excellent defensive half for the most part. But he can go searching for the work. Wighton can creep out in front of his defensive line looking to close down a shift too often. He showed his hand on one tackle before being beaten the next a fortnight ago:

We’ve seen Hughes breakdown a rushing defence a couple of times already this season:

While targeting Wighton may not be the overall ploy, it’s the sort of opportunity the Storm need to work towards. Patiently.

They’ve been one of the best teams for us to regularly breakdown here at RLW. We all know what they’re capable of and have spent much of the season admiring their style of play.

This week, it’s a lot more simple.

If they are patient with the ball and don’t give the Raiders too many easy rides up the field, opportunities will present themselves. Talent and this exciting style that has been a regular feature throughout 2020 should do the rest from there.

~ Jason

Raiders - Effort in Defence

After what we’ve seen in the last few games, we know this Raiders squad can score points - both conventionally and off the cuff. 

But it is Canberra’s defensive efforts that will likely prove the difference on Friday night as they look to hold out a Storm offence marshalled by Cameron Smith. With the veteran hooker asking plenty of questions around the ruck Canberra will be forced to commit defenders to the middle of the field, and as such may be vulnerable to quick shifts to the edges. 

Considering the threat that Justin Olam poses on the Storm’s left edge, Canberra’s Jordan Rapana will be under plenty of pressure defending at the unfamiliar right centre position on Friday night. 

Rapana and his halfback George Williams did an excellent job of shutting down the Roosters’ favoured short side last weekend. The work of Williams, in particular, caught my eye, as the tough halfback makes Rapana’s transition into the centres all the more easy thanks to his strong defensive game.

While defensive statistics can be problematic or misleading as a yardstick, Williams’ 87% tackle efficiency is the best of all full-time halves in the competition this season and is a good measure of his first contact in the tackle:

It’s rare to see the nuggety Englishmen get trampled by opposition runners, which not only means he needs less help from his fellow Raiders to complete the tackle, but also affords them extra time to get reset for the next play. 

With a strong defender on his inside, Rapana can also afford to slide more in defence to prevent the overlap and trust Williams to make the tackle.

How many times have we seen James Tedesco break through the line in this fashion?

The Rapana-Williams combination is sure to be tested by the Storm on Friday night, and how they contain the likes of Olam and Munster down that corridor will go a long way to deciding the result. But whatever the Raiders lack in experience and combinations they have continued to make up for in effort and desire, showcased no-more-so than by fullback Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad. 

He has run for 455 metres in his last two games - sudden death finals games against Cronulla and the Roosters no less - to have a hand in a number of scintillating team tries. But it is Nicoll-Klokstad’s work off the ball that makes him such a crucial part of the Raiders’ premiership push. 

Two try-saving tackles last week at opposite ends of the field - on professional finishers Josh and Brett Morris mind you - typified Nicoll-Klokstad’s role in this Raiders squad; everything is about effort.

You’d back Brett Morris in here ten times out of ten, but Nicoll-Klokstad shows incredible strength to hit and stick with his first contact, wrapping up the ball before his teammates help complete the tackle:

Apparently not yet satisfied with his efforts, the Raiders’ fullback then produced another try saver late in the second half to maintain Canberra’s lead:

Roosters fans will tell you this was a high-shot, and that’s not an argument I want to get involved in. But for Nicoll-Klokstad to get himself into position to make this tackle, at this stage of the game - after suffering from severe cramps just minutes beforehand - was a special effort. 

That just about sums up the Canberra Raiders at the moment. They’re fighting for everything and winning the result more often than not. The professionalism and control of the Melbourne Storm on Friday night will be the ultimate litmus test. 

~ Oscar

Tips

Jason: I tipped the Storm to win it all a couple of months ago now and haven’t wavered. Raiders offer a tough challenge and do play a style that can disrupt them, but I expect the Storm to preach the patience I’ve already mentioned and grind out a low-scoring win. Storm by 4.

Oscar: The Raiders are doing everything right at this end of the season, but the Cameron Smith factor tonight might be one challenge too many for Canberra this year. Expect the veteran hooker to control proceedings and grind the Raiders out of the game. Storm by 4.

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