NRL Grand Final: Panthers v Storm Preview
Few thought it was possible six months ago, but the Penrith Panthers will take on the Melbourne Storm in the 2020 NRL Grand Final.
The biggest game of the year is finally here…
We will take a look at how it all played out the last time these two met and what each side needs to do to be crowned 2020 NRL premiers.
Head-to-head in 2020
Round 6: Panthers 21 def. Storm 14
It’s worth noting Jahrome Hughes and Josh Addo-Carr were missing for the Storm in this one with their absence felt significantly on the defensive end.
The Panthers opened the scoring with what was the Play of the Round back in June. The Melbourne right edge is caught for numbers with Ryley Jacks (in for Hughes) all at sea at second marker. Api Koroisau makes them pay down the short side with a beautiful double-pump before Jarome Luai throws a nice skip pass:
The Storm pulled one back through Felise Kaufusi (which we will look into closer shortly) with a Nathan Cleary penalty goal all that separated the two teams at oranges.
Penrith’s NRL-best defence repelled an early Storm onslaught in the second half as they forced Justin Olam into touch:
Marching up the field and going back to Olam’s side defensively, Cleary drags Cameron Munster out of the line to give Penrith a three-on-two advantage. It’s an occasion that Melbourne missed Addo-Carr. He has superb instincts and knows when to fly out of the line as good as any winger in the competition. This shift could have ended differently with Addo-Carr perched on the left wing:
Melbourne once again answered back through Munster. Once again, it’s a try we’re going to dive into a little more shortly.
With the scores level going into the final 20 minutes, Cleary and the Panthers produced a try they have since come to master over the last 16 weeks:
Cleary added another try assist to his season tally via an attacking kick against the Rabbitohs in the Preliminary Final too:
A Cleary field goal secured the result for Penrith. A strong performance in the middle of the field while key play-makers displayed the poise we’ve come to expect earned the Panthers a rare win over the Storm (their ninth in 34 games). It also triggered a winning streak that is yet to end…
Deciding Factors for Sunday
Storm - Scrum line to scrum line, try line to try line
“It’s going to be won in the middle.”
We’re going to hear that a lot this week. The Storm and Panthers both boast excellent forward packs while it was Isaah Yeo’s break in the middle of the field that ultimately won Penrith the game on Saturday night.
Via Stats Insider this week: “Seven of the last nine premiership-winning teams allowed their opposition to run for the fewest or second-fewest metres per game.”
Penrith and Melbourne sit 1st and 2nd in the NRL in that category. For everything the two teams can throw at an opposition, they can take it just as good.
The Panthers work hard in the middle. Yeo we’ve mentioned already. James Fisher-Harris we’ve been fawning over all year. With Dylan Edwards, Josh Mansour and Brian To’o adding 553 metres per game between them, the Panthers play exceptionally tough in the middle of the field.
For the Storm, there is a good chance they look to go wide early and often, just as they did against the Raiders last week.
I loved this from Melbourne in the prelim. It’s 3rd tackle and Christian Welch takes possession one out from the ruck. He’s trucking that up the middle more often than not. This time, he holds it up long enough to halt the defence and begin what ended up a try-scoring shift down the left edge:
While not resulting in a try, Melbourne’s first full set after halftime last week is also a beauty.
Presented with a scrum ten metres from their own line, the Storm took two carries in the middle of the field before Welch popped up with another nice pass. This time to Hughes who holds the ball up beautifully to put Suliasi Vunivalu down the right edge:
As usual, a one-out pass settles the Storm back around the scrum line before another shift to the left edge. It’s a ripper Smith pass out of dummy half that begins this action. Perhaps it came down to the timing of the set and it being Melbourne’s first full set since hearing from Craig Bellamy, but Brandon Smith had the opportunity to go wider here:
Still, Cameron’s long pass has stretched the defence enough to not come up square and for Brandon to split two defenders and earn a quick play-the-ball. Hitting the short side, Papenhuyzen then put in a weighted grubber before the swarming Melbourne defence forced Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad back into his own in-goal. Melbourne travelled 90 metres with relative ease. Lovely.
They regularly work their way up the field by moving across it and stretching the defence.
Papenhuyzen, Smith, Munster and Hughes work in concert to zig-zag the Storm from scrum line to scrum line and try line to try line. Smith will often spend time in the middle of the field at pivot, leaving the dummy half play down the edges to Papenhuyzen and Munster.
If it’s not a shift run to expose a shrinking defence in the middle this week, Melbourne may look to get Addo-Carr the ball further in field. While capable, Brent Naden is one of Penrith’s more questionable defenders. Having Addo-Carr receive the ball as a centre when working away from their line is something Melbourne has done all season. From roughly the same spot on the field to the Papenhuyzen try above, the Storm sent the ball wide to give Addo-Carr room to move and test the defensive line in Round 16:
Expect a similar story close to the line with a focus down the right edge - on Jarome Luai, in particular. He has been picked out a few times this season; Angus Crichton ran over the top of him in Week 1 of the finals after we talked about the Roosters searching for one-on-one situations before the game.
We’ve seen some of what Melbourne might look to do down that side of the field already this season, too. I’ll be surprised if we don’t see close to a carbon copy of this on Sunday.
With Welch and Kaufusi hitting gaps on either side of Kikau the Fijian is forced to turn in and leave Luai one-on-one with Kaufusi. It will end like this more often than not:
Later in the same game with a numbers advantage on the short side and with Stephen Crichton already looking to help Luai with Kaufusi, Munster’s double-pump stops the Panthers centre in his tracks. The try assist is one of the best in 2020:
Grand Finals are assumed to be arm-wrestle’s. There is a good chance this one looks like a lot of others early as neither want to put themselves under pressure with early errors. These two also concede the fewest metres in the first three tackles when the opposition is working out from inside their own 20-metre line.
But as the wheels start to turn and game plans take shape, I expect to see the Storm begin to search wider across the field.
Smith will get his hands on the ball plenty, but not always simply from behind the ruck. He’s a master craftsman and is Melbourne’s best bet at breaking down what has been the NRL’s best defence in 2020.
With Smith in the middle, Melbourne can go left or right.
If Penrith lacks one thing, it’s big-game experience.
It’s on the edges that they lack it the most.
~ Jason
Deciding Factors
Penrith - The right combinations
With barnstorming back-rower Viliame Kikau restoring Penrith’s left edge to full strength this weekend, there is no doubting that Jarome Luai & co will ask plenty of questions of Melbourne down that channel. The Panthers couldn’t find points there last weekend - the first time in eight games that one of either Mansour, Crichton, Kikau or Luai hasn’t appeared on the scoresheet for Penrith - and something that the quartet will be looking to remedy against the Storm on Sunday.
But despite this, it is Penrith’s right edge that shapes as the deciding factor for the minor premiers this weekend - in particular fullback Dylan Edwards and back-rower Liam Martin:
“Liam Martin has developed from a firebrand impact forward into a big-minute second rower with a deft pass to complement his dynamic running game and bruising tackle technique. He looks better with every minute he spends on the field next to Nathan Cleary.
Fullback Dylan Edwards brings a consistent, high work-rate that is the perfect foil to Jarome Luai’s attacking flair and Cleary’s creative control. Like Clint Gutherson for Parramatta, Edwards is always in the frame supporting back on the inside, and in defence he is safe under the high ball and has excellent positional awareness.”
That is what I took away from Penrith’s demolition of the Cronulla Sharks, way back in Round 9 when the Panthers were still very much competition dark horses.
It will be remembered by many Penrith fans - and by the Forbes’ Post Office Hotel - as the Charlie Staines game, with the rookie winger crossing for four tries in a dream NRL debut. But it was the work of Edwards and Martin on his inside that caught our eye here at RLW back then, and ever since.
In defence, whatever Edwards lacks in size or speed he makes up for in effort and positioning. This last ditch try saving effort on Bryson Goodwin is indicative of Penrith’s defensive systems so far this year - working hard from the inside just in case you might be needed:
Martin is another player who oozes effort in everything he does on the field, with or without the ball. Bell ringing shots aside, it is plays like this one back in Round 12 that typify Martin’s influence on his team. Penrith were leading by ten points against a decimated Sea Eagles squad early in the first half, and as a big minute back-rower Martin had no right to be competing for a mid-field bomb.
Yet compete he does, forcing the mistake and winning possession for his team - the Panthers scored just five tackles later:
But it is in attack that Edwards and Martin shape to be so influential in Sunday’s game - particularly in how they combine with halfback Nathan Cleary down Penrith’s right edge.
Martin is one of the better hole running back-rowers in the competition. His timing is superb and he has good footwork before the line which often wrong foots defenders, like poor Luke Brooks back in Round 16.
Martin comes flying into frame here running a hard unders line off Cleary’s hip, but with Moses Mbye shooting off his line to shut down Edwards out the back there is space on Brooks’ outside. As Cleary throws the pass Martin changes the angle on his run ever so slightly to target Brooks’ outside shoulder, pushing through the tackle to score a classic back-rower’s try:
Melbourne’s Justin Olam is prone to flying out of the line to jam opposing fullbacks just like this, and it might be something Penrith look to expose on Sunday.
With Martin posing such a threat close to the line, opposition defences have also been caught out on the edges as he attracts defenders with genuine decoy runs. The timing and intent with which Martin runs these lead lines makes it almost impossible for defenders to slide off the big back-rower, and Cleary has shown great poise and execution to hit the right option if they don’t:
Chad Townsend only has eyes for Martin here when the Panthers’ shift right, and while credit must go to Cleary here for his superb catch-and-pass to get Edwards into space, that space was only created thanks to Martin’s work on the inside. Once Edwards gets the ball in hand, he straightens before releasing a one-handed offload to Brent Naden in support. There’s almost no defending this close to the line.
But even without Cleary calling the shots we’ve seen Martin and Edwards combine for points down that edge, and from anywhere on the field. Working out from his own end back in Round 9, Martin spotted Blayke Brailey out of position defending at left centre and immediately pulled the trigger:
Quick hands from Martin through Naden sees Staines fly down the touchline, before Edwards pops up in support to ice yet another four-pointer for the Panthers. Burning Josh Addo-Carr on the outside is a different story to Nene MacDonald in this instance, but Penrith will have plenty of confidence in their combinations down that edge going into the grand final.
This game is all but certain to be a tight, grinding affair. Both teams have elite defensive systems and neither will make it easy for the opposition to find points, but Penrith’s ability to create and threaten virtually from players 1 through 17 across the park might prove the difference.
~ Oscar
Tips:
Jason: I’ve liked this Melbourne side to win the Grand Final for a while now. They were my tip to win it in August and nothing has changed through to October 25.
They’re well equipped to deal with Penrith’s significant strengths in the middle and have a leader in Cameron Smith that can navigate them through any tough times on Sunday. While Melbourne have done it easy at points this year, their set to give Ryan Papenhuyzen a field goal attempt against the Roosters earlier in the year is a perfect example of how this group responds to pressure. They had one set to level the game and executed it to perfection.
A set like that - the understanding, composure and execution - could well decide the result on Sunday. Storm by 6.
Oscar: A good coach will tell you to never try something you haven’t practiced at training.
That’s because repetition and consistency is so important in the NRL. It’s why top-tier clubs like Melbourne and Sydney have built their success upon periods of continuity within their playing roster, their coaching staff, and most importantly within the way they train and play. If you haven’t done the reps, you can’t expect to reap the rewards.
Well, this Penrith squad have done the reps. Seventeen consecutive reps, to be precise.
Isaah Yeo’s match-winning play against South Sydney last weekend has been celebrated as a rags-to-riches story of miracle proportions - the unlikely hero making the unlikeliest of plays when all hope seemed lost. But in reality, Yeo has been breaking down middle defences all season long - his nine line breaks in 2020 ranks him first among all locks this year - and more of us should have seen that run coming.
The same can be said for the Panthers as a whole. Their forward pack has consistently won the yardage battle through the middle, while their creative players have attacked with variety and precision all season. I don’t want to be the guy saying ‘I was gonna tip Penrith’ come Sunday night. Panthers by 2.
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