NRL Notepad: Round 16
From now through to October, I’ll look back at my notes from the prior round and highlight an area of each team to keep a close eye on from your couch.
Sunday
Melbourne Storm v Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles
Storm
We’ve talked about the ball-playing options the Storm have through the middle of the field before. Now, Dale Finucane and Brandon Smith are both out with Nelson Asofa-Solomona named to start at lock this week.
Finucane’s 0.38 pass/run ratio is eighth among all middle forwards with at least five games in 2020. He averages 5.4 passes per game. Asofa-Solomona, on the other hand, had completed just seven passes all season before producing six passes in Round 15.
By being asked to play lock, it’s likely that Asofa-Solomona will be tasked with moving the ball through the middle of the field. It’s in stark contrast to his usual role of tucking the ball and trying to run over whoever stands in his way. How he adapts to the new role as - quite possibly - the biggest ball-playing forward of all-time will be worth keeping an eye on.
Sea Eagles
The Sea Eagles haven’t kept the opposition to fewer than 26 points for a month.
They’ve conceded 37.5 points per game in that time.
One of their most impressive traits throughout an injury-riddled 18 months has been their ability to grind out at least respectable performances. That hasn’t been the case quite so often this season.
The list gets worse as the injuries pile up. If there is a rugby league injuries god, somebody on the Northern Beaches has pissed them off. Still, this group, Des Hasler, they’re all better than 37.5 points conceded per game in August. They’ll need to prove it if they’re to be competitive with the Storm on Sunday.
Canberra Raiders v Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
Raiders
Hudson Young ran for 66 metres, made 12 tackles and scored a try in 28 minutes last week. Hardly eye-catching numbers, but it was one of the best games of his 22-game career.
He offered a strong carry before Tom Starling skipped over for his try in the first half. In the second, another strong run saw Young score one himself.
After a rough start to his career and the threat of a grubby reputation hanging over him, Young is starting to carve out a nice role in this side. He’s named to start at lock this week. We will be watching the 22-year-old closely.
Bulldogs
He’s not going to feature in many Top Hooker lists any time soon, but Jeremy Marshall-King is at least proving serviceable at the moment. Oscar highlighted Marshall-Kings improvements while digging into this try:
With little to look forward to in 2021 as recruitment proves less than impressive so far, serviceable players, particularly utilities in playmaking positions, could be valuable to the Bulldogs.
Marshall-King is still only 24-years-old; he still has time to develop into a consistent first-grade player. Impressing incoming coach Trent Barrett and locking down the number nine jersey is where he needs to start that development.
Thursday
Parramatta Eels v South Sydney Rabbitohs
Eels
We’re looking at Nathan Brown this week, but not for the reason you might think. He looks as though he is trying to run through a brick wall on every carry while his aggression in defence means attacking players through the middle always make note of where he is. However, we’re looking at Brown’s passing game on Thursday night.
Parramatta seemed to go in with a plan for Brown to shift the ball a little more often in Round 15. Twice he tried to engage the line before releasing a pass to a teammate. The first could well have come off and might be something he and Mitchell Moses try again:
The next seemed more premeditated and ultimately mistimed:
Brown went on to throw nine passes last week - the most he’s recorded all season. We will keep an eye on how many and how effective Brown’s passes are on Thursday night.
Rabbitohs
As you’ll have seen in the ‘Repeat Set’ on Monday, I couldn’t get enough of the Rabbitohs attack in the first half last week. It’s the sort of performance I expected to see more often when the six-again rule was first introduced.
It’s the sort we need to see more often against Top 8 teams. South Sydney’s one and only win over a finals-bound team came against Cronulla in Round 1. Against an Eels team many consider to be a genuine premiership contender that is currently playing with the NRL’s best defence conceding just 11.7 points per game, we have a chance to see what this in-form Rabbitohs attack can do against a much better team than the four they’ve beaten over the last month.
Friday
St. George-Illawarra Dragons v Gold Coast Titans
Dragons
We’ve seen Matthew Dufty catch fire as a ball-player close to the goal line this season. He’s handed out nine try assists in 13 games and I, like many others, have been forced to eat a slice or two of humble pie.
(However, despite the ridiculous suggestion for him to be considered amongst the Dally M fullbacks of the year (I forget who said it), his work in hard sets and 15 try causes (4th-most in the NRL) have stopped him from taking the next leap in his career.)
But as Dufty’s ball-playing brilliance develops, so too does the attention he receives from the defence. We’ve seen the Dragons look to Dufty when nothing else is on recently and the defence has often been ready to cover his bullet skip-passes. Finding a better balance between using Dufty as a ball-player and support player is how the Dragons can get the most out of him.
This play here is one I’d like to see again this week. While Adam Clune didn’t make the right pass in the end, it’s exactly how the Dragons can use Dufty’s speed in good ball sets rather than simply passing him the ball and asking him to create:
Titans
Jarrod Wallace played State of Origin football last year. He played five Origin matches in the two years prior as well. For the Titans in 2020, he started in Round 1 and 2 before being relegated to the bench in Round 3 and dropped from the side from Round 4 to 7.
After slowly working his way into form off the bench while also benefiting from a little bit of injury luck to players ahead of him in the pecking order, he started in Round 15 to run for 119 metres on 14 carries while making 41 tackles. He topped the Rugby League Eye Test involvement rate of players who spent more than 40 minutes on the field, and I’d expect him to go close again this week with Moeaki Fotuaika joining Jai Arrow on the sideline.
Sydney Roosters v Brisbane Broncos
Roosters
With Boyd Cordner and Daniel Tupou both back this week, I’m looking at the left-side attack of the Roosters. Even more so if Brett Morris is a late withdrawal.
I’ve said it a few times but it’s worth saying again: Daniel Tupou is the most underrated backline player in the NRL. As far as the modern day winger goes, he’s ideal.
Tupou does the hard work to get the Roosters out of their own end by averaging 190 running metres per game. He’s a destructive ball-carrier with 25 tackle breaks and excellent finisher with four tries in eight games. We’re yet to see the best of him in 2020 with the Roosters not using his height and aerial ability to the full extent under the new rules. Tupou might be a little bit slow to get going after not playing since Round 8, but he can play a big part in Sydney’s premiership push if he returns to full strength in 2020.
Broncos
I feel like I’ve put my hand up to again feature on the ‘NRL images that precede unfortunate events’ Twitter account, but I said the Broncos bottomed out after losing to the Dragons last week…
Seven days before playing the Roosters who welcome back key players from injury…
While I may end up looking like a fool, I’m curious to see how the Broncos respond to what is likely to be a much more relaxed game plan. There is no reason they can’t score tries like this on Friday night even with Anthony Milford out:
In fact, Sean O’Sullivan’s direct style of play, willingness to run the ball and the increase at which they’re using Ben Te’o on the edge may even improve the Broncos attack with the element of the relative unknown something that can work in their favour.
Nobody expects the Broncos to win - I certainly don’t. Keeping to within 14-16 points of the Roosters on Friday can be considered an improvement, though.
Saturday
New Zealand Warriors v Newcastle Knights
Warriors
You could hear them coming from the second the siren sounded for full time last week, but thankfully, the calls to keep Paul Turner in the side were ignored by Todd Payten.
Turner was great in his debut. He ran the ball well, settled things down when required, and overall, played beyond his years (20) and experience. But it wasn’t the sort of performance that should keep a healthy Chanel Harris-Tavita out of the side this week.
So, going back to Round 15 before Harris-Tavita was ruled out, I’m looking for more plays like this:
What looks like a poor pass to the ground is actually an encouraging run and nice change of tempo that Harris-Tavita can use to stifle a defence if he gets it right. He has excellent feet and isn’t afraid to take the line on. Hopefully, we see both fairly often on Saturday afternoon.
Knights
Adam O’Brien has opted to start Mason Lino in the halves ahead of Tex Hoy while avoiding another change at hooker to keep Kurt Mann at dummy half.
Plenty have questioned why Lino will play his first game of the season after Hoy impressed throughout his seven games in 2020. O’Brien’s decision makes sense, though. The Knights have looked a lot better in attack with Green out there over the last two and a half weeks. It has opened up space for Ponga out the back who is touching the ball fewer times but having more of an impact. While Mann played some of the best footy of his career at five-eighth, he doesn’t fill the position in the role that best suits the attack.
Lino has his struggles defensively - that will have been something O’Brien considered. But for this week at least, I expect him to be asked to do little more than direct traffic and move the ball wide. Like Green, Lino will act as more of a link between Ponga and Pearce than somebody expected to add creativity themselves. It may take a week or two for the trio to work things out, but I expect to see the Knights attack at least try to run similarly to the last couple of weeks.
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks v North Queensland Cowboys
Sharks
Connor Tracey joins Shaun Johnson in the halves this week. It’s an interesting wrinkle to this Sharks side that is still trying to find its best 17. However, it’s Briton Nikora’s return and his combination with Johnson that is the focus on Saturday.
It looked as though Johnson and Nikora could form a deadly right-side duo after regularly linking up in 2019. But while Johnson leads the NRL in try assists in what is one of the best seasons of his career, Nikora has found himself dropped from the side for the last three weeks.
His running metres per game have dropped from 92 metres in 2019 to 74 metres in 2020 while he’s broken the line just twice in 10 games after breaking through 11 times in 24 games last season.
Nikora is a fearless hole-runner at his best. He’s the perfect partner for Johnson on the right side with defences forced to consider him as a likely option as a lead runner on block plays. Johnson makes the right pass more often than not. This year, Nikora hasn’t put himself in the right spot often enough to receive it.
Update: Johnson is out…Still, Braydon Trindall comes in and is an exciting prospect. He’s certainly not afraid to take the line on. His show-and-go last week played a big part in Jesse Ramien darting over on the following tackle.
While we won’t see how the Johnson/Nikora combination develops this week, our eyes are still on the Cronulla halves.
Cowboys
I don’t know what Josh Hannay has in mind here. I said on Monday that I’d like to see Jake Clifford paired with Michael Morgan in the halves, but he’s failed to make the squad again this week.
Do they think Clifford and Morgan are too similar? Morgan looks as though he’s trying to fill the traditional halfback role at the moment. Perhaps that’s the problem. As overused as “he’s his best when running the ball” can be, it’s Morgan summed up in a sentence.
Let Clifford play the role of the traditional halfback and have Morgan put his best skills to work. While they wouldn’t produce the same quality, Morgan and Clifford should work in a similar way to Jack Wighton and George Williams. Instead, Daejarn Asi - who did impress in his two starts this year - will pair with Morgan in the halves.
The Cowboys need to identify their first-choice halves pairing for 2021 over the next five rounds. We will see yet another combination try their hand on Saturday evening.
Penrith Panthers v Wests Tigers
Panthers
I’d been watching the Panthers and thinking that they had upped the number of attacking kicks as Nathan Cleary continues to put the ball on a dime for his big units on the left edge.
He hung one up for Viliame Kikau to score against the Storm in Round 6:
And did the same for Stephen Crichton against the Sharks in Round 15:
Again, Rugby League Eye Test confirmed as much and highlighted Penrith’s 28% increase in attacking kicks this season. The Tigers right side defence is awful. They’re going to struggle enough to keep the Panthers from crossing the line as it is, but I’m looking out for how often Penrith take the aerial route, and how future teams might be able to defend it without resorting to escorts.
Tigers
Benji, I love you.
You’re one of the all-time greats.
But what is going on here?
We don’t need to go through the Tigers right-side defence again - it’s bad. Instead, let’s look at the positive: Harry Grant is back!
He adds another dimension to the Tigers attack. The way he works behind the ruck takes the pressure off Benji Marshall and Luke Brooks with markers and A defenders not able to blindly track toward the two halves. His running game will give the Panthers middle something to worry about while this struggling Tigers attack looks to iron out a few kinks on the edges.
But it’s the little things he adds that may go unnoticed, but are more important than his solo runs out of dummy half.
In this set against the Eels in Round 11, the subtleties of Grant’s play around the ruck draws the defence in before David Nofoaluma goes over in the corner.
First, it’s the long pass out of dummy half to get the ball quickly to the other side of the field. He then holds up Ryan Matterson twice before dropping Matt Eisenhuth off in the middle:
By engaging Reagan Campbell-Gillard at marker and dragging him across the field on the following tackle, the Eels all of a sudden have nine players occupying a relatively small area.
It's not how the Tigers drew it up. It’s not all that pretty given how far Adam Doueihi is behind the play. But with Grant drawing in defenders throughout the set and plugging the left side, the Eels can’t get back across to the right side fast enough to stop Nofoaluma going over in the corner.
Grant is sure to produce a run that will feature in the highlights reel, but it’s the little things we’re looking for in this one.
More from me this week:
For and Against: Parramatta Eels winning the Premiership
Your Edge: Gun locks, firing fullbacks & how lazy is Latrell?
Sport Tech Daily: Round 16 Preview & Value Plays
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