NRL Notepad: Round 17
From now through to October, I’ll look back at my notes from the prior round and highlight an area of each team to keep a close eye on from your couch.
Sunday
New Zealand Warriors v Parramatta Eels
Warriors
Don’t embarrass me now, Peta.
I got right behind the idea of the club re-signing Peta Hiku last week.
I then spent one morning writing more about his attacking game and asking why the Warriors hadn’t re-signed him already. By the end of the day - and before publishing - the club announced Hiku would remain with the club for 2021.
A good result.
It’s important he justifies the re-signing with a good defensive performance against the Eels on Sunday. After all, he has been known to let a few tries through.
READ:‘Hail Hiku’ via Sporttechdaily.com
Eels
I think I said enough about Parramatta’s struggles in attack on Monday.
In summary, these two tackles here which travel from one side of the field to the other without getting very far forward or threatening in the least is where they’re going wrong.
To the left…
To the right…
The Eels have averaged just 11.6 points per game over the last five rounds. The once-potent left edge is touching the ball seven-fewer times per game and has just lost Dylan Brown to injury.
It’s going to be difficult to put the Eels up with the Storm, Roosters and Panthers any time soon if they can’t get a few tries past the Warriors in this one.
North Queensland Cowboys v St. George-Illawarra Dragons
Cowboys
Ask, and you shall receive.
I’ve been asking for Jake Clifford to return to the side for a few weeks now with the young half named to start alongside Scott Drinkwater in the halves on Sunday.
While he’s not going to set the world on fire with fast feet and bullet passes, Clifford has potential to play the traditional halfback role in this side. At the very least, his kicking to end sets is the best in the team.
Josh Hannay has been forced into this change, but I’d like to see him forced into keeping Clifford out there through a few strong performances while Michael Morgan is on the sideline.
Dragons
With Esan Marsters back in the Cowboys backline, the worst-performing edge defence combination (with Kyle Feldt) has been rekindled.
This has to be the week Jordan Pereira ends his try-scoring drought…
Without a try since Round 6 and just one in 12 games this season, Pereira isn’t being rewarded for his otherwise handy performances recently. While looking into Hiku at the Warriors, I also touched on the fact Euan Aitken barely averages more than two passes per game.
‘Matt Dufty long ball - predictable’ is a note coming up more and more recently too.
Nonetheless, Pereira deserves a few chances to come his way on Sunday.
Thursday
Brisbane Broncos v Penrith Panthers
Broncos
So, the Broncos hadn’t, in fact, bottomed out following their Round 15 loss to the Dragons. The Roosters hung 58 points on the Broncos in, quite frankly, the most Broncos-like performance of 2020. Their defence was nonexistent while Kotoni Staggs and David Fifita’s individual brilliance provided Brisbane with their only source of consistent attack.
They now face a Panthers side that is playing even better than the defending premiers…
Rather than relying on a terrible team to come together and offer hope for their future, we’re focusing on Corey Oates. After averaging over 140 metres per game in each of his last four seasons, he’s running for just 118 metres when playing on the wing this season. It’s no surprise that the Broncos rank 16th in running metres when such a consistent source of yardage in hard sets in prior years is struggling to get up the field. His one try came while playing in the back row, too.
We can almost write off the result of this game already. The Panthers should do it easy. It’s all about the future for the Broncos now, and Oates recapturing Origin form needs to be part of it.
Panthers
The Panthers should win this one comfortably. It’s not a worry if they don’t, but putting away teams you’re meant to is a positive sign. There is a reason the Roosters have put 117 points on the Broncos this season. Storm thrashed them by 38 points earlier in the season too.
Rugby League Eye Test raised an interesting point about how ladder position and ladder difference influences total points scored in a match during the week: “It turns out that scoring actually goes down as ladder difference increases .”
While more points are scored in the second half of these games, he puts that down to the superior team taking their foot off the gas or referees offering a helping hand to the bottom of the table side. It all makes sense.
For the Panthers this week, it’s important that they get to a point where they can release their foot later in the match. Show the ruthlessness we’ve come to expect from eventual premiers.
Friday
Newcastle Knights v Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks
Knights
Discipline cost the Knights last week.
While soft defence is ultimately what allowed the Warriors score 36 points, it’s the extra 15 minutes of possession the Knights gave the Kiwi club through 11 errors, eight penalties and four set restarts that sucked the energy out of them.
The Knights were forced to make 148 more tackles than the Warriors. They ended up with a combined 61 missed and ineffective tackles on top of those. While the Knights have plenty of improvements to make (we’re going to be keeping an eye on the Lino/Ponga combination again on Friday), cleaning up their errors and penalties is the first one they need to tick this week.
Sharks
We’ve talked about the Sharks bench here before. In particular, the improving play of Royce Hunt. It was way back in Round 12 that the idea of Andrew Fifita possibly being left out of the side first came up. Now, following just one 31-minute stint in his return from injury, a fit Fififa (as fit as he can be right now, anyway) has been left out of John Morris’ 17 for Friday evening.
Morris has instead opted for Connor Tracey, Scott Sorensen, Siosifa Talakai and Royce Hunt on the bench. Talakai’s utility value as a big body that can play on the edges is too valuable to leave out - especially with how well he’s played this season. Hunt’s yardage in short stints may be similar to what Fifita can produce, but he’s far more mobile and reliable in defence at the moment. Unless Morris doesn’t see any need for Tracey when Johnson returns or Sorensen loses his place, Fifita may struggle to get back into the side.
We’re looking at what the Sharks bench offers this week.
South Sydney Rabbitohs v Melbourne Storm
Rabbitohs
We’ve been big believers in Latrell Mitchell as a fullback here at RLW. Just as we started to see what the Rabbitohs can look like at their best with Mitchell firing at the back, he sustained a season-ending injury. If there was any hope of the Rabbitohs competing for the premiership, it’s gone.
The Rabbitohs will still be a good team without Mitchell. Adam Reynolds, Cody Walker and Damien Cook will ensure they can still score a few points behind this underrated forward pack. But they won’t be great.
While so many people measure Mitchell as a fullback on his running metres and involvement, it’s his quick hands on the edges that add so much to this Rabbitohs attack.
They’ve started to use Mitchell out wide around the halfway mark more often too. Getting Cameron Murray and Liam Knight involved on quick shifts, Mitchell is able to get his outside men into space on the edges.
Souths could have scored more than 38 points last week had Alex Johnston’s pace been out wide.
Johnston has a chance to replace Mitchell this week. While serviceable and with plenty to play for given his contract situation, Souths won’t be as dangerous in attack. Walker will need to step up further if they’re to continue their winning ways through to October.
Storm
I’m all about Isaac Lumelume this week.
The Storm needs a winger to replace Suliasi Vunivalu next season and Lumelume has a chance here to put his name at the top of the list for 2021. He has the hands to defuse bombs and the yardage to help get the Storm out of their own end. Now we just need to see him finish one off in the corner.
Saturday
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs v Gold Coast Titans
Bulldogs
The Bulldogs attack is bad.
We’ve been here before, though.
While putting 20 points on the Raiders looks good, the reality is that they were pretty lucky to get there. Lachlan Lewis threw a beautiful pass for Dallin Watene-Zelezniak. Give that one a tick. The other three?
Raymond Faitala-Mariner’s try has been consistently called an obstruction this year.
While Kieran Foran’s kick landed on the spot for Josh Jackson’s try, it came more as a last resort.
Kerrod Holland’s try will be a contender for Try of the Year, but it’s not one they’re going to be able to draw up and recreate on Saturday.
For the most part, the Bulldogs attack remained as predictable as it has been all season. The Raiders knew exactly what was coming and were able to defend any Bulldogs shift with relative ease by the end of the game.
Let’s be honest, there isn’t much the Bulldogs can do at this point. It’s all Foran or nothing. Lewis offered some encouraging plays in Round 16, though. A few more of those on Saturday will provide some hope for next season.
Titans
Seeing Oscar highlight this play, with a similar action leading to the Titans match-winning try later on, reminded me to scroll up to my Round 15 notes on their loss to the Raiders. One thing that stood out is how often their middle forwards looked to move the ball.
Jarrod Wallace put AJ Brimson through a hole on the first tackle in this set:
Three tackles later, Jaimin Jolliffe tried to do the same for Moeaki Fotuaika:
Wallace then got involved again. While he needed to dig further into the line for that pass to be more effective, it’s in a spot where we’re more accustomed to seeing Wallace plod up for a settler:
Fotuaika threw a wide pass off a kickoff in the same game. Jolliffe was active as a ball-player in good ball sets in Round 16. We’re on the lookout for anything similar from the Titans middlemen this week.
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles v Wests Tigers
Sea Eagles
It was never going to be easy coming up against Justin Olam and the Storm, but Albert Hopoate struggled on debut.
Olam had his way with Hopoate early:
Ryan Papenhuyzen’s speed then caught the 19-year-old out as the Storm fullback skipped past before sending Josh Addo-Carr down the outside:
Having seen Hopoate struggle with the speed earlier on, Cameron Smith is quick to shift this ball out to Addo-Carr who is standing further infield than usual. Addo-Carr breaks the arms tackle with relative ease:
Hopoate getting back to make tackles on Papenhuyzen and Addo-Carr in the above plays is encouraging. He’s not at his quickest following a second ACL injury. However, we’re on the lookout for a significant improvement in his overall defence this week against a Tigers left edge he should be able to handle.
Tigers
All eyes have to be on Benji Marshall, don’t they?
He’s been given his marching orders for 2021. It’s the right call by the club but poorly handled. Marshall shouldn’t have found out through the media. Ideally, it’s a conversation they had in private with Marshall ‘choosing’ to retire from the NRL and given a genuine send-off. Anyway, how he responds and whether or not the decision sparks some vintage Benji will determine how Wests finish the season.
Canberra Raiders v Sydney Roosters
Raiders
Tom Starling has been named in the 14 jersey again, but surely he’s out there for kickoff…SURELY!
Despite spending 10 minutes in the naughty chair against the Bulldogs last week, Starling still made the Stats Insider Team of the Week (along with Josh Papalii and Joseph Tapine).
He scored a double, ran for 68 metres, and really just caused the Bulldogs defence headaches with the ball in hand. He’s crafty around the ruck, but it’s when he crabs across the field and finds a hole-runner that he’s troubling the defence most. He’s been doing it somewhat regularly since cracking first-grade in Round 10. The Sydney Roosters will have seen that, though.
First of all, will Starling still be able to set players up in the same way?
Second, can he still have a significant impact on the game if the Roosters shut that play down? You know Jared Waerea-Hargreaves will be lining him up…
Roosters
You know what else the Roosters will have talked about this week?
How the Raiders carved up their middle defence the last time they met in Round 10.
In fact, it’s the first time we saw Starling start to crab across the field before hitting a teammate in the middle.
Expect the Roosters to be a much tougher nut to crack in the middle of the field on Saturday night.
Oh, and Sonny Bill Williams is probably worth keeping an eye on too.
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